What Angola’s Oil Reform Story Can Teach Libya’s Next Phase of Growth

Libya’s upstream sector has staged a remarkable operational recovery, with crude production reaching approximately 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) – its highest level in more than a decade. As the country works to sustain this momentum, strengthening the investment environment will be just as important as increasing output to attract long-term upstream capital.

While Angola and Libya have distinct political and institutional landscapes, both rank among Africa’s leading hydrocarbon producers with significant resource potential. In Crude Oil: Power, Turnaround and Transformation in Angola, NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, examines how Angola strengthened its investment climate through a series of regulatory reforms. Although focused on Angola, the book offers valuable insights into how policy certainty can complement geological potential in attracting investment.

A defining moment in Angola’s upstream transformation came in 2019, when the country separated Sonangol’s commercial responsibilities from regulatory oversight through the establishment of the National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANPG). The reform streamlined decision-making, improved transparency and helped reinforce investor confidence, supporting an upstream investment pipeline expected to exceed $60 billion between 2025 and 2030.

As Libya continues advancing its upstream sector, experiences from markets such as Angola illustrate how clear institutional frameworks can strengthen investor confidence and support project development over the long term. Building on recent production gains, continued efforts to enhance regulatory clarity and streamline investment processes could further reinforce Libya’s position as a leading destination for upstream capital.

Angola also introduced a permanent offer licensing mechanism, allowing companies to negotiate available acreage outside traditional bid rounds. The approach has provided greater flexibility for investors while ensuring opportunities remain available beyond periodic licensing rounds. As Libya re-engages international investors through its renewed licensing program, flexible mechanisms that encourage continuous investment could help broaden participation over time.

Beyond licensing reform, Angola introduced policies to extend production from mature offshore assets while implementing dedicated natural gas legislation that supported new discoveries, including Gajajeira-01 gas exploration well, and accelerated gas commercialization through greater regulatory clarity and clearly defined investor rights.

Libya likewise possesses substantial undeveloped oil and gas resources. As the country advances future upstream developments, predictable frameworks for brownfield redevelopment, marginal fields and gas monetization could help unlock additional investment while supporting domestic energy security and long-term production growth.

“Geology alone does not attract investment. Investors commit capital where regulation is predictable, contracts are respected and governments compete for long-term partnerships. Angola’s experience shows that reform is not about giving resources away – it is about creating the confidence that allows capital to develop them,” says Ayuk.

Libya’s production recovery demonstrates the resilience and potential of its energy sector. As the country looks toward its next phase of growth, Angola’s experience underscores how regulatory reform and policy certainty can complement resource wealth, helping translate production gains into sustained investment and long-term sector development.