UN Warns South Sudan Elections Could Trigger Renewed Conflict Without Key Safeguards

JUBA, South Sudan — South Sudan’s planned first national elections since independence could trigger renewed conflict and heighten the risk of atrocity crimes unless urgent political, security and human rights safeguards are put in place, the U.N. Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan warned Thursday.

The warning comes as the country prepares for general elections scheduled for December 22, 2026, a potentially historic vote for Africa’s youngest nation. South Sudan’s National Elections Commission has announced the date, while more than 30 political parties have registered to participate.

While acknowledging the significance of giving South Sudanese an opportunity to choose their leaders at the ballot box, the U.N. commission warned that elections conducted amid armed conflict, shrinking political space and weak institutions could deepen rather than resolve the country’s political crisis.

In a new advisory, “At the Brink: Preventing Atrocity Crimes and Safeguarding South Sudan’s Transition,” the commission said several danger signs are converging as the country moves closer to the polls. These include renewed fighting in parts of the country, narrowing political space, weakened institutions, limited accountability for serious abuses and the exclusion of significant sections of the population from meaningful political participation.

The commission stressed that South Sudanese have a fundamental right to choose their leaders through free, peaceful and democratic elections, but questioned whether the current environment allows citizens to exercise that right safely and without intimidation.

“South Sudanese have waited 15 years to cast their first ballots as citizens of an independent state. They have the right to choose their government through free, peaceful and democratic elections. They deserve an election that gives them a voice, not one that puts their lives at risk,” said Yasmin Sooka, chair of the commission.

“A peaceful democracy cannot be built on a foundation of armed conflict, fear and exclusion,” Sooka said, warning that safeguards designed to prevent the country from sliding back into war are being weakened as the election approaches.

South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in July 2011 following decades of conflict, but descended into civil war in December 2013. The conflict devastated the country, displaced millions and produced widespread allegations of atrocities before the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement established a framework for ending the fighting and guiding a political transition.

Commissioner Barney Afako said the peace agreement was intended to remove armed violence from political competition and establish institutions capable of providing long-term stability.

“Elections must not be allowed to create another violent battleground,” Afako said. “Instead, the guns are returning while the safeguards for peaceful political competition are disappearing.”

“South Sudan cannot build a democratic future by excluding those with whom it disagrees,” he added.

UN Outlines Conditions for Credible Elections

The advisory identifies several conditions the commission considers essential for credible and peaceful elections. These include a monitored ceasefire, unified national security forces operating under a nonpartisan command structure, independent electoral and judicial institutions, protection for vulnerable groups, measures to counter hate speech and equal opportunities for political participation.

Commissioner Carlos Castresana Fernández warned that meeting an election timetable alone would not make the process legitimate.

“An election cannot be credible simply because it is held on schedule,” Fernández said, stressing that credibility depends on citizens being able to participate and vote without fear. Without adequate safeguards, he warned, the ballot box could become another arena for conflict rather than a pathway out of the country’s prolonged political instability.

The commission called on the government and parties to the 2018 peace agreement to end hostilities, restore transitional security arrangements and resume inclusive political dialogue involving opposition groups, civil society organisations, women and young people.

It also called for detained opposition leaders, including Riek Machar, to be released unless they are promptly brought before an independent and impartial court.

AU, IGAD and UN Urged to Step Up Diplomacy

Beyond South Sudan’s political leadership, the commission urged the African Union, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), United Nations and other international partners to intensify preventive diplomacy and help ensure that unresolved political disputes do not escalate as the election approaches.

The commission argued that South Sudan’s central challenge is no longer the absence of peace agreements or political roadmaps, but the failure to fully implement existing commitments and hold accountable those responsible for serious violations.

“South Sudan does not lack peace agreements, frameworks or roadmaps; it lacks their implementation, and accountability for those who have chosen power over the protection of the people they govern,” the commission said.

With just months remaining before the scheduled vote, the U.N. body warned that the opportunity to prevent another major crisis is narrowing.

“The window to prevent a return to the scale of atrocities and displacement South Sudan endured between 2013-2018 is closing, but it has not yet completely shut,” the commission said.

The December election is expected to be a defining test of South Sudan’s long and troubled political transition. If conducted peacefully and credibly, it could mark an important step toward representative government after years of transitional arrangements. But the U.N. commission’s warning underscores the stakes: without security guarantees, inclusive political participation and functioning institutions, an election intended to move the country beyond its violent past could instead expose its unresolved divisions.