Uganda Ebola Crisis: Coffee Trade Risk Offset by Global Supply Boom

The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda is causing alarm among global health and migration organisations.

The outbreak, which has so far resulted in 695 cases and 138 deaths*, is being contained by African governments with the support of global organisations such as the WHO – but some of the measures, such as total border closures, may pose a disproportionate risk to the domestic economies.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, smallholder farmers’ incomes were adversely impacted when border closures stifled trade and access to inputs, leading to severe economic and food security issues.

But the industry at large survived thanks to resilient coffee demand and a trading system in which volumes are committed months in advance of sale. Coffee prices, however, have fluctuated due to a complex mix of structural and environmental factors: consumption has increasingly shifted from out-of-home to at-home, putting pressure on traditional coffee shops and leading to retail demand spikes; and adverse climate events have hit harvests in recent years.

In 2026, the Ebola outbreak in Central Africa may pose a threat to the sixth largest coffee exporter, Uganda. So far, the impact of border closures on coffee trade hasn’t been felt by one of the largest export players in the region, Neumann Kaffee Gruppe.

But a researcher who studied the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions in Uganda explained that prolonged border disruption could limit access to inputs and ultimately impact productivity. If Uganda’s coffee harvest takes a hit in the months ahead, the potential impact on prices and availability would only be felt much later.

But should the industry be worried at all, based on harvest projections from coffee’s biggest global exporters?

According to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data, the top three coffee exporters – Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia – are all set for bumper harvests in 2026/27.

Colombia’s coffee production is forecast to increase by 7.2% due to favourable weather conditions. Higher production is expected to bump coffee exports to 13.4 million bags, with the main destinations being the US, the EU, and Japan.

Vietnam’s forecast also looks positive. Production is expected to rise to 32.5 million bags, with falling prices encouraging supply chain players to release export stocks.

Brazil is on course for a record harvest after five years of weak output. Arabica coffee in particular is expected to benefit from this recovery, and as a result, Brazil’s coffee exports are forecast to surge by 30%. Still, exporters remain cautious, the USDA reports, holding back on deals amid low stocks and uncertainties around a possible El Niño event. These market dynamics could affect the end of this harvest and the 2027/28 marketing year.

But overall, the most recent forecasts offer promising signs that if production in Uganda is challenged in the coming months due to Ebola-related restrictions, any shortfalls are likely to be absorbed by global trade dynamics.

*Combined totals across DRC and Uganda, as of Friday, June 12, 7:27pm BST. For the most up-to-date information, please visit the WHO’s Ebola portal.