U.S.-China Summit Will Hinge on Critical Minerals | Letters to the Editor

The world will be watching closely when President Trump hosts China’s President Xi later this month. And considering the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the conflict with Iran, there’s plenty for the two to discuss. But one issue is absolutely paramount for the two leaders to solve—Beijing’s threat to cut off metal and mineral exports to the United States.

Critical minerals have become the indispensable inputs for cell phones, cars, medical equipment, and nearly every weapons system used by America’s military. That’s why it was so worrying last year when Beijing announced sweeping export controls on rare earth metals. These restrictions came on top of earlier limits for gallium, germanium, and antimony exports.

Beijing has since suspended its broadest rare-earth controls—but only until November 10. The summit in Washington this month will serve as the renegotiation point.

Consider what the International Energy Agency (IEA) has to say. If China decided to fully restrict exports of these crucial resources, the IEA believes that an astounding $6.5 trillion worth of production outside of China would be put at risk each year—with the United States and Europe absorbing nearly half of the damage.

Realistically, mining is where these crucial supplies come from. But China’s greatest leverage actually comes in the next step—refining. China currently refines 73% of the world’s cobalt, 59% of its lithium, and 90% of its graphite. American mining companies often have no domestic buyer for their ore, so they ship these raw materials to China. What comes back are higher-value materials needed to manufacture a host of advanced technologies.

Antimony offers a clear example of China’s market dominance in metals and minerals. The U.S. manufactures most of its lead-acid batteries at home—and recycles 99% of its lead. But these batteries need antimony, and China controls 75% of the world’s antimony refining. When Beijing restricted antimony exports in 2024 and 2025, prices surged almost 200%. That drove up costs for the batteries that start America’s military trucks, tanks, and helicopters.

New U.S. and Malaysian refineries have slightly reduced China’s share of rare earth refining to 85%—down from 90% in 2023. But Beijing noticed. In June, China responded by adding MP Materials and USA Rare Earth—the companies building America’s rare earth refining and magnet capacity—to its export control list.

The Trump administration is rightly treating China’s weaponization of mineral supply chains as a crisis. In February, it launched Project Vault, a strategic critical minerals reserve backed by a $10 billion Export-Import Bank loan and nearly $2 billion in private capital.

But there’s still a missing step. These federal programs and incentives should not be used to buy from refineries owned or controlled by China. Otherwise, a U.S. mineral stockpile would still remain dependent on Beijing. That’s why the reserve should buy only from American and allied processors—which would make Project Vault a steady customer for domestic U.S. refining.

Refineries need ore, and the most secure ore is under American soil. The United States holds vast mineral reserves, including one of the world’s largest endowments of copper, and a massive lithium deposit along the Nevada-Oregon border. However, it can take up to 29 years to bring a new U.S. mine online. America’s processing plants face similarly challenging delays. Congress must cut this red tape.

When President Trump meets with President Xi, minerals will be the elephant in the room. Never has it been more important to rebuild American mining and processing. Just ask President Xi.

Mihir Torsekar is a senior economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America.