Two-front war with Russia and China would require new US basing strategy, report says

An American armored brigade should be permanently stationed in Poland as part of a broader military realignment designed to prepare the U.S. for simultaneous conflicts with Russia and China, according to a new think tank report.

Under the proposal, Europe would retain capabilities that are less relevant to a Taiwan conflict, such as armored formations, while more Navy and Air Force assets would shift to Asia given the need to maneuver over great distances. 

“Without urgent and rapid changes, the United States risks losing the ability to deter major conflict — especially in the Indo-Pacific — and to fight and win a protracted war in one or more regions,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a June report.

The report focused on how to fight a two-front war with Russia and China, a topic that has emerged as a focal point for top U.S. military commanders and has already prompted changes in Pentagon planning.

U.S. European Command’s Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who also serves as NATO’s top military commander, has repeatedly warned that Russia and China could launch coordinated military action aimed at overstretching American forces.

NATO has already adjusted some of its war plans to account for such a scenario, with the United States now providing fewer personnel to the alliance’s force model for crisis response operations.

“There has been an unhealthy co-dependence … on U.S. forces,” Grynkewich said in a June 3 statement, adding that the “potential reality of simultaneous conflict in multiple theaters” demands that European allies handle a larger share of the combat burden.

Manned and unmanned aircraft and naval vessels are areas where allies can immediately step up, he said.

The CSIS report contends that Poland should be home to a permanently based armored brigade, an arrangement that it says would be more efficient than rotating forces into the country.

“Army ground forces — particularly U.S. armor — should provide the bulk of the U.S. contribution to support NATO allies in Europe, given the utility of these forces to a land fight against Russian forces on the continent and their limited use in the Indo-Pacific beyond the Korean Peninsula,” the report said.

Capabilities that the authors say may shift to the Pacific include air refueling assets, which are critical for long-distance operations.

Other capabilities could be shifted as needed, such as Europe-based U.S. F-35s, which would likely be targets in the early stages of a conflict with China if they were positioned somewhere like Japan, according to the report.

But some of the CSIS recommendations are at odds with recent Pentagon moves in Europe. For example, the Pentagon’s decision last year to end rotating infantry brigades to Romania should be reinstated, the report said.

Last month, the Pentagon also ended an armored brigade rotation planned for Poland. President Donald Trump later called for 5,000 troops to be added back to Poland, but it’s not yet clear what form that could take.

While the authors said China must remain the Pentagon’s top priority, defense officials should avoid making wholesale reductions in Europe, which the report calls the second-most significant military mission for the United States.

To counter China, the U.S. should position more long-range bombers in the Indo-Pacific, according to the report. It singles out the stealthy B-2, saying the aircraft has proved effective in various wargames.

Australia should be considered as a base for stationing such aircraft. Otherwise, more bomber rotational missions would be needed, the report said.

On land, more long-range precision fires and midrange fires capabilities should be added across the region, such as Multiple Launch Rocket Systems. Outside the Korean Peninsula, the Marine Corps “should serve as the primary ground combat element in the Indo-Pacific,” the report said.