Russia’s Black August Returns as War, Fuel Shortages and a Weaker Ruble Deepen Pressure | Ukraine news
Fuel queues, economic anxiety and political repression are converging at a moment when the Kremlin insists that Russia’s problems remain manageable.
For decades, August in Russia has had a reputation as a month of major upheavals. It is called “Black August” or the “August curse,” linking this period not to a shortage of news during the holiday season, but to wars, political turning points, and financial crises.
Russian history offers plenty of grounds for such sentiments. In August 1991, a coup by supporters of a hardline communist course against Mikhail Gorbachev failed, becoming one of the key factors in the collapse of the USSR. Seven years later, Russia defaulted on its domestic debt, and the ruble sharply depreciated.
In August 1999, an invasion of Dagestan by militants marked the beginning of the Second Chechen War and contributed to Vladimir Putin’s rapid political rise. Already under his rule, in 2000, the nuclear submarine “Kursk,” carrying 118 sailors, sank. In August 2008, Russia launched a war against Georgia.
Russia in Summer: War, Fuel Shortages, and a Weaker Ruble
This summer, Russia’s problems have once again piled up in several areas at once. Russian troops have failed to achieve any notable success on the front in Ukraine, while Ukrainian strikes have hit oil refineries and logistics facilities in Russian cities.
For Russians, the consequences of the war are increasingly showing up in everyday life. Lines have appeared at gas stations in various regions, fuel has become more expensive, and the ruble has continued to weaken. Rumors of a possible new wave of mobilization are adding further tension.
Russian commentator Ilya Varlamov, who is living in exile, believes that the August disasters are a coincidence. At the same time, he noted that this year many Russian residents are greeting August with particular anxiety.
Many Russians await August with anxiety. Especially now, when the country is truly in crisis. The fuel crisis has returned, prices are rising and show no sign of stopping, the ruble is falling, elections are approaching, and God knows what else.
– Ilya Varlamov
Varlamov also drew attention to a warning by one of Russia’s leading economists about a possible “social crisis.” Among other problems, he cited Moscow’s technological and economic backwardness, as well as Russia’s inability to win a war of attrition against Ukraine, which is supported by the West.
Even the pro-Kremlin tabloid “Moskovsky Komsomolets” exploited the traditional August fears, linking potential social upheaval to a lunar eclipse.
Putin Downplays the Scale of the Problems
Against the backdrop of the fuel crisis, strikes on infrastructure, and economic difficulties, Putin is publicly projecting confidence. Commenting on attacks on warehouses belonging to the major online retailer Wildberries, he acknowledged that there had been losses but said the consequences would not be critical. He also noted that logistics facilities would be restored with state support.
It goes without saying that these attacks will not have, do not cause, and cannot cause any critical consequences. Of course, they cause damage – that is obvious, and we understand it, see it, and recognize it.
– Vladimir Putin
However, the war is increasingly affecting living standards in Russia. At the same time, political debate continues in Ukraine. Recently dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov called for elections to be held during wartime, creating a new political challenge for Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Zelenskyy’s five-year presidential term was due to end in 2024, but elections were not held because of martial law introduced after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Personnel changes in Kyiv and large-scale anti-government protests indicate that the mechanisms of civil society and democracy in Ukraine continue to function.
Suppression of the Opposition in Russia
In Russia itself, the political situation looks entirely different. Opposition politician Lev Shlosberg was sentenced to 11 years in prison for speaking out against the war. In addition, Russia’s Supreme Court banned his party, “Yabloko,” from taking part in upcoming parliamentary elections.
Since the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine, the Russian authorities have effectively destroyed the domestic opposition. The death of Alexei Navalny in prison in February 2024 became one of the most visible symbols of the final dismantling of independent politics in the country.
Whether “Black August” is a pattern or merely a series of coincidences remains an open question. However, this year the final month of summer has once again exposed Russia’s military, economic, and domestic political problems, which the Kremlin is trying to downplay.