Russian Fiasco in Mali?

The West African nation of Mali is in the grips of its worst military conflict in years. Radical Islamists and Tuareg separatists have joined forces to fight against the military government that has been in power since a coup in 2020. What does the conflict mean for the Russian Africa Corps, which backs the military junta in Bamako, and for Europe?

No relying on the Russians

Switzerland’s Neue Zürcher Zeitung confirms the failure of Russia’s engagement in Africa:

In 2021, after the expulsion of French troops from the country, the Russians – still operating under the Wagner banner – entered West Africa to resounding applause from the local population. This was a rejection of ‘Françafrique’, France’s dominant influence in West Africa, which persisted long after the colonial era ended. The Russians’ attractive promise: Africa for Africans – and security. Not much has come of that. The military junta has been humiliated. … When push comes to shove, there’s no relying on the Russians. Their forces are too weak and overstretched; they are too distracted by the war against Ukraine.

General Goïta’s fatal mistake

Mali’s military junta made a fatal error of judgement, Italy’s Corriere della Sera comments:

After a series of coups, General Goïta has ruled the country since 2021 and has gradually abandoned his promises of a democratic transition. Last summer, he passed a law that allows him to renew his five-year term in office multiple times without holding elections. In theory this means that he could remain in power until 2030 or 2025. But his Russian backers no longer seem to be in a position to support him, and the rebels are putting him under pressure. The risky move of driving out the French and relying on Moscow was copied by Niger and Burkina Faso, but could prove fatal for the ruling military juntas in Mali and other Sahel countries.

Repeat of Syrian fiasco for Moscow

After its failures in Ukraine, the Russian armed forces no longer inspire fear, notes military expert Sergei Auslender in a Telegram post picked up by Russia’s Echo:

The situation in Syria was repeated almost exactly [in Mali], where rebels who had emerged from the organized ranks of al-Qaeda and ISIL rebranded themselves, toned down their slogans to appear more respectable, then swiftly overthrew the regime, thereby enabling foreign troops (Iranians and Russians in the case of Syria) to evacuate unhindered. … All this is a direct and indirect consequence of the war in Ukraine. … People have simply stopped fearing an army that for years has been struggling to capture a random little town in the Donetsk region incurring huge losses, as if it were the Battle of the Somme.

Inglorious in Africa

The events are another knock to Russia’s image on the African continent, Switzerland’s Le Courrier observes:

This pitiful withdrawal, described by some as a ‘betrayal’ of the Malian junta – which had sought Moscow’s help following the withdrawal of the French and UN troops – risks further and lasting damage to Russia’s reputation on the African continent. This incident follows the equally inglorious episode of the abusive recruitment of young Africans into the Russian army. Several reports published earlier this year revealed fraudulent recruitment methods in which candidates were promised well-paid jobs, only to end up as cannon fodder on the Ukrainian front.

Tribal confederation with mixed loyalties

Latvia’s Diena takes a closer look at the political stance of the Tuareg:

A key point here is that the Tuareg, who live in concentrated communities in several countries throughout the region, including Mali, form a tribal confederation whose members maintain very different relationships with local governments. Some Tuareg are loyal to these governments (in return for not interfering in their internal affairs), and in the case of Mali, some tribes joined forces with government troops to repel Islamist attacks. This has led to the assumption [among Mali’s military junta] that an agreement could also be reached with the Tuareg of the FLA [Azawad Liberation Front], which would make it possible to end the resource-draining efforts to maintain control of Mali within its borders and instead devote all forces to the fight against Islamist radicals.

Not some exotic crisis in a far-off land

Spain’s El País explains how all this affects Europe:

Following the initial confusion over France’s withdrawal from a scenario in which Paris had calling the shots, the EU has maintained low-profile diplomacy and reduced development cooperation to a minimum. … It’s not easy to keep the dialogue channels open because the challenge is just knowing who to talk to. … Meanwhile, thousands of young people are trying to escape the crisis by heading north, many of them via the Canary Islands: a migration flow linked to poverty that will continue to grow as long as violence rages in the country. … Mali, a maelstrom of violence on Europe’s doorstep, is not some exotic crisis in a far-off land.

See the original here.