Russia tests NATO’s resolve in Leipzig– GIS Reports
A failed bomb attack on a Ukraine-bound plane in Germany reveals troubling political timidity toward Moscow’s escalating hybrid warfare.
A drone loaded with explosives was found at Leipzig-Halle airport in Germany. It was close to a Ukrainian aircraft that was to transport military equipment to Ukraine. The drone carried explosives PETN and Semtex, which failed to detonate on impact.
It seems obvious that it was destined to blow up the Ukrainian airplane, and it also clearly appears to be a forceful Russian intervention on German territory. This is a very serious violation, independent of whether the attack succeeded or not. It is also a clear provocation. The reaction of the German government and politicians was lukewarm and avoided blaming Russia.
Not surprisingly, the Kremlin denied Russian involvement and suggested that it was staged. As only Russia has a motive to sabotage weapons transport to Ukraine, the implication of who stood behind it is extremely strong.
Psychologically weak leaders try to live in denial of problems and dangers.
Yet, clearly, this is more than a provocation − it is a warlike incident, an armed attack under international law. It could trigger NATO Article 4, which means a consultation with all alliance partners. Officials in Germany weakly talked around it, and basically played it down. To this end, the only German politician speaking plainly about the incident was Roderich Kiesewetter, a CDU member of the German parliament.
There is an important point to be considered. Psychologically weak leaders try to live in denial of problems and dangers. They believe that if one does not speak out and avoids the problem, it might hopefully disappear. This has all the ingredients for disaster, and problems do not go away by themselves.
Russia is known to test limits; if the answer is not clear and no forthright action is taken, they will escalate further. We have already seen repeated provocations from Moscow in Poland and the Baltic states.
Russia is known to test limits; if the answer is not clear and no forthright action is taken, they will escalate further.
The Kremlin is active in the so-called hybrid domain as well. One example was the polonium attacks a few years ago on individuals in Western Europe who were regarded as traitors by Russia. People were killed, and the Kremlin denied it. But by using polonium, they gave a very clear signal as to how Russia treats traitors.
Read more by GIS Founder and Chairman Prince Michael of Liechtenstein
Fortunately, the drone in Leipzig failed, but the weak German response will fuel repetition.
Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian army officer and military theorist, said that war is the continuation of politics by other means. In his view, the other means were military force; at that stage, an armed conflict was defined as military operations between two states on their territories. Hybrid war has stretched this, because it is no longer limited to geographic territory, and it is just as damaging.
Unless there is a forceful retaliation with whatever means necessary for incidents like Leipzig, the situation will escalate, because Moscow knows it can go further. The cozy idea and cynical concept that the war can be contained only to Ukrainian territory is an illusion.
This incident is testing both Germany and NATO.
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