Russia Struggles to Meet 409,000 Troop Recruitment Goal, Ukraine Says

Russia is failing to meet its 409,000-troop recruitment target in 2026, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) on Tuesday.

The SZRU, in a press release, said Russia has filled less than half of that target as of July, with only 195,000 contracts signed compared to the 204,500 target.

The agency added that the daily recruitment rate averaged around 1,070-1,090 troops per day, falling below the daily average of 1,200 between 2024-25.

In June, independent Russian outlet Verstka said Russia’s recruitment dropped nationwide despite increased financial incentives. The outlet reported that Moscow sent 1,708 contract soldiers to the front in April and 1,378 in May – about 1,000 fewer recruits than during the same months last year.

In June, a Russian lawmaker said Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin might announce a new wave of mobilization in autumn, after the State Duma elections, with senior officials in Kyiv sharing similar assessments. 

Troop losses exceed 1.4 million

Russia has been facing mounting battlefield losses in recent months, recording net territorial losses in April for the first time since Ukraine’s August 2024 Kursk incursion. In May, Ukraine’s defense ministry said Russia lost more troops than it could replace for the fifth month in a row.

As of July 14, Kyiv’s estimates put Russian troop losses – including those killed and wounded – at 1,120 over the past day, bringing the total since the start of the 2022 invasion to more than 1.4 million.

The SZRU said Russia lost 196,700 troops in 2026 alone – including around 115,300 “irretrievable” losses, 80,400 injured, and around 1,000 captured by Ukraine.

The agency added that Russia has lowered “medical and functional” requirements in a bid to replenish its troops.

Replenishing its ranks via smaller regions and foreign recruits

The SZRU also claimed that Russia has looked toward smaller regions – including occupied Ukrainian territory – and labor migrants for contract soldiers.

“In 2026 the Russian Federation plans to attract about 7,900 residents of the [temporarily occupied territories] TOT of Ukraine to participate in hostilities against Ukraine,” the update says, adding that the act constitutes a war crime.

The agency said the Kremlin has also imposed high recruitment quotas on specific regions, including the ethnic-minority republics of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan.

“At the same time, within Russia, the greatest burden (in quantitative terms) of implementing the plans for 2025 and 2026 falls on the Central and Volga Federal Districts (92,000 and 90,000 people, respectively),” the update says.

“At the same time, in the Volga Federal District, the largest quantitative recruitment indicators are observed in the republics of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan (12,900 and 12,000 people, respectively),” it adds.

In June, Ukrainian partisan movement Atesh said the Kremlin issued strict directives to regional authorities to increase contract soldier recruitment, with authorities primarily targeting men with large debts listed in bailiff databases and former prisoners under administrative supervision.

The SZRU added that Russia has raised the recruitment target of foreign fighters from 16,000 to 18,500, adding that migrants were often coerced into signing military contracts.

A captured Chinese prisoner of war (POW) said at an April 2025 press conference that he was lured to sign contracts under false pretenses, claiming he was promised a job as a therapist in the Russian military before being sent to the Ukrainian front.

Failed recruitment targeting students

The SZRU said Russia also sought contract soldiers from educational institutions but largely failed in its endeavor.

The agency said most students showed no desire to go to war.

“The Ministry of Defense, together with the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation, planned to recruit more than 50,000 students from higher and secondary specialized education institutions for military service under a contract,” the update says.

“Despite unprecedented propaganda and administrative pressure, the absolute majority of students do not express a desire to go to military service and participate in hostilities against Ukraine,” it adds.

One such recruitment campaign took place at Russia’s Kuban State Agrarian University on April 23, when a Ukrainian soldier posing as a Russian drone operator addressed Russian students during a recruitment call before warning them against joining the war midway through the call.