Report: French Expert Reveals What He Describes as Saudi Arabia’s “Influence Game” in Yemen Secret Talks with the Houthis and a Strategic Arabian Sea Project
Paris – AIJES
Professor François Frison-Roche, Senior Expert on Yemen’s National Dialogue, has presented a provocative assessment of the Yemeni conflict, arguing that Saudi Arabia is pursuing what he describes as a strategic “influence game” through direct, confidential negotiations with the Houthi movement, while sidelining Yemen’s internationally recognized government.
In a new analytical study, Frison-Roche contends that Riyadh is taking advantage of the international community’s preoccupation with the U.S.-Iran confrontation to revive a unilateral negotiating track with the Houthis.
According to his analysis, these discussions are taking place without the participation of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, headed by Rashad Al-Alimi, despite the council being Saudi Arabia’s official ally.
The French expert raises significant questions over whether the ongoing negotiations could pave the way for an undeclared agreement under which the Houthis would refrain from threatening Saudi Arabia’s southern border in exchange for de facto recognition of their territorial control in northern Yemen, accompanied by political and financial arrangements.
According to the analysis, Saudi Arabia’s objectives extend beyond ending security threats. Frison-Roche argues that Riyadh is also pursuing long-term geopolitical gains, foremost among them reviving a decades-old plan to construct an oil pipeline linking Saudi territory to the Arabian Sea through Yemen’s Hadhramaut and Al-Mahrah governorates.
Such a route would allow the Kingdom to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and reduce its dependence on one of the world’s most strategically sensitive maritime chokepoints.
Frison-Roche further argues that recent years have witnessed a steady expansion of Saudi influence inside Yemen, accompanied by the declining role of regional partners, particularly the United Arab Emirates and the Southern Transitional Council, while Riyadh has strengthened its leverage over Yemen’s political decision-making.
He also suggests that the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which has operated from Saudi Arabia for years, has become increasingly aligned with Saudi decision-making, raising questions about the extent of its political independence in managing Yemen’s sovereign affairs.
The analysis further argues that Riyadh is counting on implicit international support for this approach, given the shared interest in securing maritime navigation through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Such stability serves Egypt’s economic interests through Suez Canal revenues, as well as Israel and several European countries whose trade with Asia depends on the uninterrupted flow of shipping through this vital maritime corridor.
Frison-Roche concludes that any future regional understandings could significantly reshape Yemen’s political and strategic landscape. Nevertheless, he argues that “the greatest loser, once again, will be the Yemeni people,” who have borne the cost of years of war, instability, and regional power struggles.