Red Sea Blockade Fallout Spreads: Saudi Crude Exports via Egypt’s Mediterranean Route Surge More Than Double — BigGo Finance

Saudi Arabia is dramatically reconfiguring its crude oil export routes, channeling millions of barrels per day through the Sumed pipeline that spans Egypt to the Mediterranean, bypassing the perilous Red Sea in response to the maritime blockade imposed by Iran-backed Houthi forces. Trade intelligence firm Kpler data shows that oil exports from Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir surged to approximately 2.3 million barrels per day in August, more than double the roughly 1 million barrels recorded the previous month, with the overwhelming majority being Saudi crude.

Kpler’s head of commodity research, Matt Smith, stated bluntly: “This is not a short-term decision. This is a clear shift in strategy or market dynamics.” Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser also made the company’s position explicit during an earnings call earlier this month, confirming that Riyadh holds alternatives to routes through the southern Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Overland Pipeline Becomes Strategic Artery

The port of Sidi Kerir is connected to the Red Sea port of Ain Sokhna via the pipeline system known as Sumed. Because fully laden supertankers draw too much water to transit the Suez Canal directly, Saudi Arabia’s current approach involves offloading roughly half the crude into the pipeline at Ain Sokhna, then sailing the vessel through the canal at half capacity before reloading at Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean side.

Vortexa data corroborates this trend, showing that crude and condensate loadings at Sidi Kerir averaged a record 2.17 million barrels per day last week, approximately 90% of which was Saudi crude — roughly 50% higher than the prior week.

Nasser stated during Saudi Aramco’s August 4 earnings call: “We have access to multiple corridors and alternative routes, including via the Sumed pipeline and the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean.”

Bab el-Mandeb Exports Plunge Nearly 90%

The port of Yanbu on Saudi Arabia’s western coast had long served as a critical export outlet for the kingdom to relieve pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. However, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have rendered the Yanbu export route through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equally hazardous.

Kpler data shows that in the week ending August 3, Saudi oil exports from Yanbu through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell to approximately 1.3 million barrels, a staggering decline of nearly 90% from the 11 million barrels recorded in the week when the Houthis declared their blockade on July 20.

Because tankers carrying Saudi crude in the Red Sea frequently disable their transponders to avoid being targeted by Houthi forces, global energy monitoring agencies are showing significant data discrepancies. Vortexa analyst George Morris revealed that vessels departing Yanbu recently have been almost entirely operating in “dark” mode, making it extremely difficult to track their precise headings through public signals. Kpler estimates Yanbu export volumes have contracted sharply to 1.78 million barrels per day, while AXSMarine data suggests exports are actually rebounding. This “statistical blind spot” is further intensifying concerns in international crude markets about supply stability.

Global Crude Flow Realignment

Smith noted that the majority of oil exports from Sidi Kerir are now heading to the United States and Europe rather than Saudi Arabia’s traditional Asian markets. This appears to indicate that Asian customers are selling off related cargoes, as routing around Africa is not cost-effective for them.

Nasser acknowledged during the earnings call that if the destination is Asia, tankers departing from the Mediterranean must sail around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 25 days to the voyage compared with direct export through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Smith described the current situation as a “knock-on effect”: “Europe is receiving more crude from Saudi Arabia, so West African crude that was originally supplying Europe may now be redirected to Asia.”

Note: Data sourced from Kpler; Sidi Kerir export figures compare full-month averages for August versus July.

Security Shadow Spreads Northward

However, rerouting Saudi oil flows through Egypt does not necessarily eliminate the risk of attack. On July 30, two LNG carriers were struck by drone attacks at Egypt’s Port of Damietta, with no group yet claiming responsibility — a clear signal that energy infrastructure on the Mediterranean side is by no means absolutely secure.

Meanwhile, the Houthi threat to Saudi domestic facilities is also escalating. Satellite imagery from late July showed smoke billowing from Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery on the Red Sea coast after it came under attack.

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld, CEO of tanker operator DHT, said during an earnings call: “Transiting the Bab el-Mandeb is becoming increasingly challenging. Shifting routes northward and westward has become the reluctant choice for the oil industry to maintain operations.”

Market Impact and Outlook

Saudi Arabia’s move marks a profound transformation in the Middle East’s energy transportation landscape. For decades, Saudi crude exports have relied heavily on two critical chokepoints — the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Now, with Iran and its allies applying pressure on both corridors simultaneously, Riyadh has been forced to activate a dual contingency strategy combining overland pipelines with voyages around Africa.

For global crude markets, the reconfiguration of transportation routes means higher logistics costs and longer delivery times, with Asian buyers bearing the most direct impact. If the Red Sea situation continues to deteriorate, Asian refiners may be compelled to pay higher premiums to secure supply or turn to other producing nations for alternative sources. While European markets stand to benefit in the short term from the redirection of Saudi crude, the overall fragility of the supply chain is rising. Any further attacks targeting Mediterranean ports or Suez Canal facilities could trigger a fresh wave of supply panic.