Norway vs Iraq Prediction, Odds & Match Preview
Erling Haaland leads Norway into a World Cup opener against Iraq.
This year marks the third World Cup appearance for Norway. In qualifying, the Scandinavian side scored 37 goals in eight matches, largely due to an easy draw.
Iraq has yet to appear at a FIFA World Cup in the nation’s history. In the first of two pre-tournament friendlies, the Middle Eastern side held Spain to a 1-1 draw.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Norway vs Iraq prediction.
Norway vs Iraq: World Cup Odds
Iraq vs Norway Prediction
Based on Iraq’s inexperience against the world’s best attacking sides and Norway’s metrics against Italy, my Norway vs Iraq prediction is Norway Over 2.5 Goals (+105).
Over 2.5 @ +105
Under 2.5 @ -125
I recognize Iraq just held Spain to one goal. However, the defense surrendered three big scoring chances against a rotated Spanish attack. In competition, the result likely looks different.
If you’re Norway, you’re trying to run up the score in this match. One of Norway, Senegal or France will finish third in this group, and goal differential could come into play.
I’ll be shocked if one of those three finishes as one of the four worst third-place teams. Still, it’s in Norway’s interest to protect against future results with an offensive onslaught.
By current ELO ratings, Norway qualifies as Iraq’s most difficult competitive opponent….ever.
Its previous hardest opponent was South Korea. In two qualifying matches, Iraq surrendered at least two goals in both matches. In a visit to South Korea, it allowed three goals.
Norway possesses a far superior attack to South Korea. While a lot of its qualifying metrics can be ignored, the performances against Italy give me confidence for this match specifically.
The UEFA side scored seven goals over two legs against Italy – three at home, four on the road. By post-shot xG, Norway averaged 2.14 per 90 against the Italians.
If there’s a slight concern, it came with Norway holding a minority share of possession. But we also have performances to cite for Norway with the ball.
Against Israel, which sits five spots ahead of Iraq in ELO ratings, Norway scored four goals off 3.96 xG and 5.13 post-shot xG, per FotMob.
Slovenia, which sits 10 spots ahead of Iraq, allowed seven goals over two legs. Norway cleared two post-shot xG in both matches.
At minimum, Norway should get to two goals in Foxborough. At plus-money, I like the price on the favorites scoring three or more.