Morocco: Is El Niño raising the specter of a new drought?

El Niño is anticipated to reach a «very strong intensity», heightening the risk of extreme weather events «through 2027», as warned by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In its latest information bulletin, the UN agency stated yesterday that the phenomenon has become «firmly established» and is expected to «intensify» in the coming months.

The impacts could be substantial, affecting «temperature and rainfall patterns, as well as increasing the associated risks of flooding, drought, and extreme heat». Driven by elevated ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, El Niño is predicted to peak «toward the end of 2026», according to the WMO.

A phenomenon now part of a new normal

These unprecedented forecasts suggest an «exceptionally high probability (nearly 100%)» that El Niño will persist «until February 2027». The agency highlights that this historically definitive scenario reflects the «strong consensus within the broad» UN network about the anticipated climate impacts next year.

The WMO described the situation as being of «exceptional magnitude», issuing a stark warning that «the planet is entering uncharted waters, and those waters are warming». «Sea-surface temperatures are reaching record levels, the mercury continues to rise, and extreme weather events are becoming the new normal», the organization added.

Reiterating the urgent need for decisive climate action and protection for affected populations, the agency characterized the situation as «a race against time» due to climate and water-related disruptions already evident in several regions worldwide, as well as across economies. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted, «this exceptional El Niño event requires exceptional preparation and response».

Moreover, «never in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched a mobilization of this scale with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services», the official stressed.

Can Morocco prepare for it?

During El Niño/La Niña episodes worldwide, periods marking the return of El Niño have often seen Morocco experiencing unusually high temperatures extending into winter, alongside increasingly scarce rainfall. However, the intensity of El Niño is not solely enough to dictate the consequences, which can vary by region.

After a particularly rainy winter from November 2025 to February 2026, Morocco managed to end long years of historic drought, notably restoring reservoir levels at its dams. This much-needed respite even revived wetlands and river mouths.

But this recovery was quickly overshadowed by recurring and closely spaced heatwaves, once again raising concerns about El Niño. As autumn approaches this September, temperatures remain abnormally high. At the beginning of the month, they were repeatedly the subject of alerts from the General Directorate of Meteorology (DGM).

This is likely because the rainy winter of 2025-2026 may not signal a definitive end to the historic drought. While those rains provided a reprieve from «structural water stress», they could also indicate a «new, warmer climate» according to climatologist and professor at Hassan II University in Casablanca, Mohamed Said Karrouk.

For the scientist, this sequence is «neither extreme nor exceptional». Instead, it showcases the characteristics of what he describes as «a new, warmer climate, since at least 2010», necessitating new forms of adaptation in response.