ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian sources falsely and baselessly claimed that Russian forces encircled 2,000 Ukrainian forces northeast of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces attempted to assassinate Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) head Oleksandr Poklad with a Geran-type drone strike on September 4.
• The Russian Geran drone platform adaptations are improving their ability to conduct successful high-precision strikes.
• The Kremlin’s behavior indicates Russia’s unwillingness to guarantee the safety of the US delegation during their reported upcoming visit to Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin appears committed to his existing expensive and inefficient force generation mechanism through volunteer recruitment.
• Russia’s expedited efforts to establish its Rassvet satellite constellation as a replacement for Starlink are facing significant challenges which may degrade the constellation’s lifespan.
• Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military, oil, and defense-industrial infrastructure on September 3 and 4. Russian forces launched one Kh-31P anti-radar missile and 121 drones against Ukraine overnight.
• Ukrainian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area.

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