Iran war nears turning point as Trump weighs broader attack
WASHINGTON (TNND) — Nearly two weeks of intensifying strikes and stalled negotiations are fueling concerns the war with Iran could soon enter a far more dangerous phase as President Donald Trump weighs whether to carry out another major attack.
The United States has carried out 13 consecutive days of strikes against Iran since Trump declared an earlier ceasefire was over, expanding the target list beyond military sites hosting missiles and equipment to roads, tunnels and other areas as frustrations mount over continued attacks on shipping routes and Tehran’s refusals to meet his demands in negotiations.
Tehran has also stepped up its targets for drone and missile strikes hitting multiple countries in the region. A new front has opened in the war with the Iran-backed Houthi militants firing on oil tankers in the Red Sea, putting more pressure on global oil prices. The expanding list of targets and growing involvement of other groups has fueled concerns the conflict is spreading and may be more difficult to contain.
The increasingly regional nature of the conflict comes as Trump has signaled he may be prepared to move beyond the limited retaliatory strikes that have persisted over the last two weeks. Trump has said he is considering whether to go even further and launch attacks that are “bigger than ever before.”
Such an attack would expand the current scope of American operations in Iran against a wider range of military and government targets. The threat to escalate the campaign against Iran comes as the U.S. has surged more forces, weapons and other resources to the Middle East.
“I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it,” the president told Axios this week.
The Trump administration had tried to end the conflict diplomatically for weeks after a tenuous memorandum of understanding was reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and eventually yield to an agreement curtailing Iran’s nuclear program. But those discussions stalled out amid Iranian resistance to Trump’s demands on its nuclear enrichment program and future control over the strait.
While administration officials continue to say they are open to negotiations, they have increasingly questioned whether Tehran is serious about reaching a deal after weeks of tedious negotiations yielded little progress.
The Iranian regime has shown no signs of backing down despite repeated threats from Trump and the prolonged bombing campaign. Several of its leaders have vowed to continue attacking U.S. forces and other allies in the region while asserting Tehran has a right to control the Strait of Hormuz.
The continued fighting has also increased pressure on Trump to respond more forcefully. Eighteen U.S. troops have been killed so far in the conflict, including three in a missile barrage last week in Jordan. The deaths of American forces have further heightened Trump’s resolve to hit back at Iran.
“Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Whether to escalate further also presents Trump with a difficult political choice. While he has argued stronger military pressure is needed to force concessions from Tehran, a longer war could deepen public frustration and test support among voters who backed Trump’s promises to avoid new foreign conflicts.
He has argued the short-term costs of the war, including higher gas prices are worth preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. But polling has found Americans are considerably less supportive of a prolonged conflict and want the U.S. to find a way out of it.
With diplomacy stalled, casualties mounting and military operations continuing to expand, analysts say the conflict has reached a pivotal moment where additional escalation is becoming increasingly likely.
“If these operations continue between Iran and the U.S., it is likely that there could be an escalation beyond the current pattern, whether through deliberate planning or the unintended consequences of one side attacking the other,” said Javed Ali, a former counterterrorism official in the federal government and associate professor of practice at the University of Michigan.
Trump has claimed than Iran has wanted to negotiate but “hadn’t received enough pain yet.” U.S. officials have increasingly framed the renewed bombing campaign as an effort to convince Tehran that accepting Trump’s demands is less costly than continuing the war.
Analysts are skeptical Iran is approaching that breaking point.
“The potential for this seems low however, given that Iran does not seem to have a shortcoming in ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles despite those that they have already used or lost the past few months, and the rhetoric from the regime does not publicly indicate a desire to de-escalate,” Ali said.
The disconnect between the administration’s strategy and Iran’s apparent willingness to continue fighting has raised concerns that additional military pressure could push the conflict toward a broader regional war rather than renewed negotiations.