Giorgia Meloni’s Italy enters Egypt-Ethiopia showdown over Africa’s longest river after 15 years of failed US and China efforts

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani made the offer after talks with his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty, saying Rome was ready to help facilitate dialogue if both Cairo and Addis Ababa agreed, Middle East Monitor reported.

Tajani said any settlement should comply with international law and address Egypt’s concerns over its share of Nile waters. He added that Italy could use its strong relations with Ethiopia to support negotiations.

The offer comes as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government marks a political milestone, becoming Italy’s longest-serving administration since World War II after 1,413 days in office, while Rome expands its engagement with Africa through the Mattei Plan.

Italy has also maintained close ties with both sides of the dispute, backing Ethiopia with a €70 million concessional loan and €10 million grant, while bilateral trade with Egypt reached €5.9 billion in 2025.

Rome has a direct connection to the GERD itself through Italian construction group Webuild, which served as the project’s main contractor. Ethiopia inaugurated the dam in September 2025 after construction began in 2011.

The $5 billion GERD is Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, with about 5,150 megawatts of installed capacity, and Ethiopia sees it as central to expanding electricity access, industrialisation and regional power exports.

For Egypt, however, the stakes are tied closely to national security. The country depends on the Nile for about 90% of its freshwater and has repeatedly described the issue as existential.

Years of tension have also given the standoff a military dimension, with Ethiopia strengthening air defences around the GERD using Russian-made Pantsir systems, Israeli SPYDER surface-to-air missiles and Ukrainian ST-68UM radar equipment.

Egypt has not formally announced plans to strike the dam, but Cairo has repeatedly said it reserves the right to protect its water security.

During Donald Trump’s first presidency, Trump said Egypt could end up “blowing up that dam” if the dispute remained unresolved.

Italy’s offer follows years of unsuccessful diplomatic efforts involving the United States and the African Union.

US-led talks collapsed in 2020, while subsequent African Union negotiations failed to produce a binding agreement.

Washington returned to the dispute in January 2026, when Trump offered to restart mediation and resolve “The Nile Water Sharing” dispute “once and for all”.

China has also publicly weighed in on the GERD dispute since at least June 2020, when Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to resolve their differences through dialogue and said Beijing was ready to “continue to play a constructive role”.

More recently, during Xi Jinping’s September 1-2, 2026 state visit to Egypt, China recognised Cairo’s “legitimate right” to protect its water and food security while calling on Nile Basin states to comply with international law.