Funding crisis, early troop exit forces a rethink on Somalia political future

Yet the decision is the clearest sign yet that regional leaders no longer believe military operations alone can stabilise Somalia, and are pressing the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) to pursue inclusive political dialogue alongside efforts to contain Shabaab-the Somali militant group.

At an extraordinary summit held on July 31 at Speke Resort Munyonyo in Uganda, heads of state from Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, Ethiopia, Egypt, Djibouti and Somalia agreed that the African Union (AU) should begin planning an “orderly, coordinated and phased exit” for the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom).

The decision follows a financial crisis triggered by the US decision to end support for the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS), the logistics backbone that has sustained successive AU missions for nearly two decades.

Instead of the five-year mandate envisaged when Aussom was launched, which was due to run until December 31, 2029, the summit proposed maintaining UN-mandated logistical support for only another 18 to 24 months.

The leaders said that during that period, Somali security institutions would be strengthened and security responsibilities gradually transferred before AU troops leave. The decision effectively shortens the lifespan of the mission by between 12 and 18 months.

The summit directed chiefs of defence forces to meet in Mogadishu to develop an implementation plan for decisions taken at an earlier extraordinary summit in April 2025, including intensifying operations to degrade Al Shabaab before international logistical support comes to an end.

Regional leaders also urged the Somali government to accelerate recruitment of local vigilante and mobile forces to hold territory recovered from Shabaab, seeking to avoid a repeat of the territorial setbacks suffered by Somali security forces in 2024 after AU troops vacated some bases due to UN-enforced drawdowns.

As it stands, the AU has begun planning the end of its military mission in Somalia after a funding crisis forced troop-contributing countries to confront a question that nearly two decades of peacekeeping have failed to answer: can Somalia’s security be sustained without a political settlement?

Perhaps the more significant shift, however, came in Uganda’s push for a political strategy to accompany the military transition. During meetings preceding the summit, Uganda tabled proposals calling on the Somali government to produce a roadmap for inclusive political dialogue aimed at strengthening cooperation between Mogadishu and Somalia’s federal member states.

Uganda’s Defence Minister Kiryowa Kiwanuka urged building national ownership, arguing that lasting stability would ultimately depend on resolving Somalia’s political divisions.

“For sustainability, the political question must be answered. Dialogue and cooperation between the Federal Government of Somalia and the federal member states is imperative,” he said.

The proposal reflects growing recognition among regional policymakers that Africa’s latest peace mission risks following the trajectory of its predecessors unless Somalia develops broader political consensus alongside security gains.

Whether that dialogue should eventually extend to Al Shabaab remains contentious.

“Why not?” said one diplomat and regional security analyst who requested anonymity. “Are they not fighting to capture political power? Bring them to the table and present a formula for sharing that power if that is what will bring lasting peace.”

The suggestion is likely to prove controversial given that Al Shabaab remains affiliated with Al Qaeda and is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN and major powers including the US, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, among others.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni nevertheless projected confidence after chairing the summit: “Our involvement in Somalia was never because we share a border, but out of principle and strategy,” he wrote on X. “We rejected the extremism that seeks to impose itself on African societies and stood in solidarity with our brothers and sisters.”

He added that Africa’s history of respecting diversity gave him confidence that “through our collective efforts, we shall continue supporting Somalia’s journey towards lasting peace and stability.”

His remarks drew criticism online from some commentators, who questioned both the longevity and purpose of Uganda’s military deployment in Somalia. Uganda was the first country to have boots on the ground in February 2007.

Financing remains the biggest hurdle

Whether that funding materialises could determine not only the pace of Aussom’s withdrawal, but also whether Somalia’s security transition succeeds, or leaves another vacuum for Al Shabaab to exploit.

The eventual exit of Aussom, deployed on January 1, 2025, would mark the latest transition in nearly two decades of AU engagement in Somalia. It replaced the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis), which on April 1, 2022 was reconfigured to hand over the country’s security responsibilities to Somali forces by December 31, 2024. Atmis took over from the pioneer African Union Mission in Somalia, established in 2007 with Uganda as the first troop contributor then.