France vs Morocco Predictions & Picks: Who Will Win Today’s World Cup Match?

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

A trip to the semifinals is up for grabs when France and Morocco meet today at 4 p.m. ET on FOX.

Morocco is fresh off another historic, expectation-defying run, but they face a French squad that remains near the top of the World Cup odds board for a reason.

Advertisement

My France vs. Morocco predictions and World Cup picks expect Les Bleus to flex their muscles, with their overwhelming offensive quality opening up a ton of betting value for this Thursday, July 9 clash.

France vs Morocco predictions

 TOP PICK
Who will win France vs Morocco: France (-182)

Don’t let France’s 1-0 win over Paraguay fool you. Les Bleus controlled that match from the opening whistle, constantly pinned Paraguay inside its own half, and eventually found the breakthrough despite facing a compact defense, relentless fouling, and an inconsistent referee.

This remains one of the tournament’s most dangerous attacks. France had scored at least twice in 16 of its previous 18 matches before the Paraguay result, with the only other exception coming in a pre-tournament friendly. Morocco defended bravely against Canada, but France attacks with far more variety. Shut down one threat, and another quickly appears, making it much harder to stay organized for 90 minutes.

Advertisement

Morocco deserves credit for reaching the quarterfinals, but the 3-0 win over Canada was more comfortable on the scoreboard than on the field, with two late counterattacking goals stretching the margin. France is simply a different challenge. Its experienced back line has the pace to neutralize Morocco’s transition game, while its attacking quality should eventually tell. I trust Les Bleus to find the breakthrough and book a semifinal spot.

Playable to -200.

COVERS INTEL:

France has generated 9.79 xG compared to Morocco’s 6.40. In a quarterfinal where margins shrink, that chance-quality gap speaks loudly.

Advertisement

France vs Morocco Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (-110)

France has spent most of this tournament overwhelming opponents with attacking quality, and I think this quarterfinal eventually opens up. Les Bleus have scored at least twice in 16 of their last 18 matches, while their movement between the lines has consistently created high-quality chances.

The key is game state. Morocco is at its best defending in numbers and looking to counter, but if France scores first, the Atlas Lions will have little choice but to push forward. That’s not how they’re built. More space plays directly into France’s hands, making a 3-0 or 3-1 scoreline feel more likely than another tense 1-0 affair.

Playable to -130.

France vs Morocco goal scorer pick: Michael Olise to score (+260)

Michael Olise has been France’s best creative outlet all tournament, but this is also a good spot for him to get on the scoresheet himself. France loves attacking through the middle, and Olise’s ability to drift between the lines should cause problems for a Morocco midfield that had shaky moments against Canada’s pressure and pace.

Advertisement

With Mbappe, Dembele, and Doue stretching the back line, Olise should find space around the box to arrive late or pick his spot from distance. If France controls territory again, he’ll get chances. This is a strong anytime scorer look in a matchup where Les Bleus should generate sustained pressure.

See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.

France vs Morocco projected lineup

France (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Digne, Saliba, Upamecano, Kounde; Rabiot, Kone; Doue, Olise, Dembele; Mbappe

Morocco (Formation): Bono, Mazraoui, Riad, Diop, Hakimi; El Aynaoui, Bouaddi; El Khannouss, Ounahi, Diaz; Rahimi

Advertisement

France vs Morocco injuries

France: Tchouameni (Questionable).

Morocco: Ezzalzouli (Out), Aguerd (Out).

France vs Morocco weather

Conditions will be hot and humid for the 4 p.m. ET kickoff, with temperatures around 32°C (90°F) and a RealFeel near 37°C (99°F). While thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon, any significant weather should hold off until after kickoff.

France vs Morocco odds

Odds courtesy of Kalshi.

How to watch France vs Morocco

Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Advertisement

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.