Executive summary – Uganda Energy Transition Plan – Analysis

Uganda is among the fastest growing countries in the world. Maintaining this pace of growth would amount to an economic transformation for the country. Uganda is still a low-income country, with a GDP per capita 40% below the sub-Saharan Africa average. However, in the last two decades, real GDP has grown by around 6% annually. The IMF is forecasting similar growth on the horizon, which would need to be sustained to meet Uganda’s development and poverty reduction goals, including reaching upper-middle-income status by 2040.

Energy systems must modernise and expand rapidly to meet these ambitions, prompting Uganda’s decision to develop the Energy Transition Plan (ETP). The objectives of the plan, stated by Uganda’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (MEMD), are:

• Provide universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking by 2030.
• Modernise and diversify Uganda’s energy mix and promote its efficient use across all sectors to support industrial growth, poverty reduction and socio-economic transformation.
• Ensure secure and affordable energy supply.
• Mitigate energy emissions in line with Uganda’s conditional climate commitments, which imply a 20% reduction compared to baseline emissions in 2030.
• Position Uganda as an energy hub for the East African region.

This report, produced in close collaboration with Uganda, provides an ambitious yet feasible pathway for the energy sector to meet these strategic objectives.

Given Uganda’s point of departure, efforts must be stepped up to develop the country’s energy systems. Electricity and clean cooking access rates remain low, at around 45% and 15%, respectively, despite recent progress driven by strong government programmes. Modern energy consumption per capita remains low – around 30 times lower than the average in advanced economies. Solid biomass, largely firewood, charcoal, and bagasse used in buildings and industry, accounts for 90% of the country’s final energy consumption today.

Importantly, the country has many domestic energy and mineral resources that can help realise the energy transition. Uganda has ample potential for solar, hydroelectric and geothermal power. With the opening of the Tilenga and Kingfisher oil fields in 2025, Uganda is set to become an oil producer and exporter for the first time. Currently the country imports all its oil products. It also has new graphite and rare earth projects in Orom and Makuutu under development and holds important deposits of other critical minerals. These resources, if harnessed well, could reinforce the transition and contribute to Uganda’s economic growth.