Egypt wraps up winter potato crop amid tight supply and rising prices

As Egypt concludes its second potato harvest season of the year, the market has positive indicators regarding both pricing and demand, according to Yassen Abdelhay, export advisor at Arafa for export and agriculture development. The exporter provides an analysis and outlook on post-harvest.

Abdelhay says, “At the beginning of the season, we anticipated stable pricing and huge volumes for the winter crop, contrasted by a tighter summer harvest due to the reduction in imported seed potato volumes. Looking back at the data from the past five months, these market forecasts have proven highly accurate.”

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The winter crop: High volumes and late-season storage
According to the exporter, the winter crop in Egypt was substantial, causing early-season prices to mirror last year’s competitive baselines. Export performance remained strong as Russia maintained its position as the leading volume buyer, followed closely by increased demand from Gulf countries. On the other hand, the EU imported lower volumes than last year, a direct result of Europe’s own high domestic carryover stocks and lower local price points.

Storage plays influenced the cycle, Abdelhay adds. “Anticipating a shifting market, several Egyptian growers chose to hold and store portions of their winter crop rather than selling immediately. Because this crop has now reached its maximum storage life and must be moved, these growers are successfully liquidating their stocks. They are capturing small profits for their storage period by capitalizing on the current elevated market prices.”

The summer crop: Supply compression and price increase
After an abundant winter cycle, the summer crop faces tight volume constraints due to the lower seed imports, according to Abdelhay. “As we projected, this limited supply is currently under intense pressure from three competing channels: the domestic market, exports, and seed retention for next winter’s planting season. This multi-channel demand has triggered a steady upward price trend. Given the limited volumes remaining in cold storage, we anticipate persistent pricing pressure and further increases lasting through the end of October 2026.”

Geopolitical dynamics and the Gulf supply chain
“Regional geopolitical instability has significantly reshaped trade flows, as Egypt remains a cornerstone supplier of fresh potatoes to the Gulf region, with the exception of Saudi Arabia,” Abdelhay says.

The exporter explains how the tense geopolitical situation in the Gulf region impacts the potato market: “Ongoing regional conflicts and threats to critical maritime straits have driven an aggressive surge in demand for Egyptian potatoes since March 2026. In a best-case scenario, assuming a diplomatic agreement is reached, Gulf countries will remain heavily dependent on Egyptian potato imports for at least the next two months. However, if the geopolitical crisis persists for another four months, Egypt’s limited summer crop volumes will face a critical supply challenge, as these stored summer stocks are traditionally required to stretch until October or November, which will affect the price.”

The exporter adds, “At Arafa Company, we continue to strengthen our position within the Egyptian potato sector. The company’s production capacity exceeds 150,000 tons per year, while export volumes reached 50,000 tonnes in 2025. In 2026, our aim is not only to maintain stable export volumes to existing markets but also to open new export destinations like Belarus, Gulf countries, and the Far East, diversifying our market base and reducing dependency on a limited number of clients. This strategy aligns with the broader business trend toward risk management and sustainable growth.

In addition, Arafa Company focused on maintaining control over the majority of the potato supply chain, including seed importation, cultivation, harvesting, storage, and export operations. Moreover, we are among the few Egyptian growers and exporters capable of supplying chip factories with premium-quality processing potatoes on a year-round basis. Product diversification is also part of the company’s strategy, as Arafa exports white beans and peanuts alongside potatoes,” Abdelhay concludes.

For more information:
Yassen Abdelhay
Arafa for Export and Agricultural Development
Tel/WhatsApp: +20 1007244471
Email: [email protected]
www.arafatrade.com