Ecuador Raises El Niño Alert to Red as Pacific Warming Intensifies
Ecuador has declared a nationwide red alert over the El Niño phenomenon as oceanic and atmospheric conditions continue to strengthen across the tropical Pacific.
The National Risk Management Secretariat (SNGR) raised the alert to its highest level on Aug. 29 after the National Committee for the Study of the Regional El Niño Phenomenon (ERFEN) determined that conditions met Ecuador’s criteria for the phenomenon. The decision activated emergency committees nationwide, enabling authorities to mobilize resources and order preventive evacuations where necessary.
The declaration follows several months of escalation. The government systematically heightened its risk rating over four months, progressing from yellow in May to orange in July and red in August. The upgraded alert reflects broader Pacific climate shifts rather than a forecast of immediate, severe weather in every region.
Ecuador is preparing for a stronger El Niño
One of the clearest signals is the temperature of the Pacific Ocean near Ecuador. Authorities have reported sea-surface temperature anomalies of about 4°C in some areas off the country’s coast.
The warming reflects changes in the tropical Pacific that can alter rainfall, temperature and atmospheric circulation across Ecuador and other countries in the region.
The red alert concerns the potential consequences of those changes. It does not mean that extreme rainfall, drought or heat has already affected the entire country.
Ecuador has already recorded significant environmental pressure this year. Between January and August, authorities registered 2,553 wildfires that burned about 15,862 hectares. The fires add to the risks authorities are monitoring as the climate pattern develops.
Official estimates project that El Niño could affect nearly 1.3 million residents across 17 provinces. Those effects can differ by location. Some areas could face heavier rainfall and flooding, while others may experience drought, heat and pressure on water supplies.
The Pacific warming also matters for Colombia
Colombia has been monitoring the developing El Niño event for months. The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) reported in August that El Niño conditions had completed a third consecutive moving quarter with both oceanic and atmospheric signals present.
IDEAM estimated a 69% probability that the event could reach “very strong” intensity during October, November and December 2026. The institute said that level would exceed the intensity of El Niño events recorded since 1950, based on the relevant three-month RONI measure.
The forecast does not imply identical conditions across Colombia. IDEAM has stressed that El Niño affects the country’s regions unevenly. Reduced rainfall and higher temperatures are among the possible effects, but their intensity can differ across the Caribbean, Andean, Pacific, Orinoquia and Amazon regions.
The potential consequences include lower river flows, pressure on water supplies and reservoirs, and a higher risk of vegetation fires. IDEAM has also warned of increased heat exposure, including dehydration and heatstroke.
Colombia has already taken a formal step in response. On July 23, the national government issued Decree 0802, declaring a national disaster situation for 12 months because of the expected risks associated with El Niño. The measure gives authorities additional mechanisms to prepare for and respond to those risks.
El Niño develops over months, not days
El Niño is a climate pattern that develops through changes in the tropical Pacific and their interaction with the atmosphere. Its presence can increase the likelihood of particular weather patterns, but it cannot determine the weather in a specific location on a specific day.
That distinction explains why Ecuador’s red alert is a preparedness measure rather than a declaration that extreme weather has already arrived nationwide. In Colombia, the government’s disaster declaration serves a similar preventive purpose while IDEAM continues to monitor oceanic and atmospheric conditions.
IDEAM’s August assessment put the probability of El Niño conditions continuing through the first quarter of 2027 above 90%. The institute also reported that international monitoring agencies, including NOAA, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the World Meteorological Organization, continued to indicate a high likelihood of persistence and possible intensification.
The next months will determine the event’s strength
IDEAM’s current projection places the greatest probability of very strong conditions between October and December. Ecuadorian authorities are also preparing for the potential consequences of the phenomenon as its oceanic and atmospheric signals evolve.
In Colombia, one indicator to watch is the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly. IDEAM said a value above 2°C would place the event within the “very strong” category under its current assessment.
That measurement, together with continued coupling between the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, will help determine whether the current forecasts develop into one of the strongest El Niño events recorded in the modern observational period.