Congo Bans Copper Concentrate Exports, Sending Prices to a Six-Month High | Ukraine news

A policy move with limited direct supply impact has exposed just how little room the global copper market has left.

The global copper market reacted sharply to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s decision to immediately ban exports of copper and cobalt concentrates. The three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange rose to a six-month high of $14,369.50 per metric ton. Amid tightening spreads, the spot price reached a record $14,453.60 per ton.

At the same time, the CME cobalt price barely changed, even though Congo is the world’s largest supplier of this battery metal. On Friday, spot cobalt closed at $25.99 per pound, down 0.9% from a week earlier.

This difference in market reaction is explained by the structure of the country’s exports. Congo does not export cobalt concentrate, but mainly cobalt hydroxide – an intermediate product already subject to export quotas.

Copper concentrate also accounts for a relatively small share of Congo’s exports, as the country focuses on producing refined metal. Moreover, authorities in Kinshasa have already banned copper concentrate exports three times, but each time granted exemptions to mining companies. Therefore, the current surge in prices says more about nervousness in the copper market than about the scale of any potential shortage resulting from Congo’s decision.

Congo tightens control over copper processing

Congo’s rich copper deposits are suitable for electrowinning, allowing most operations to produce metal directly at the mining site. According to StoneX analysts, refined copper produced domestically accounted for 82% of Congo’s total copper output last year.

At the same time, the authorities have long sought to process domestically the portion of raw material that still leaves the country in concentrate form. The first two bans, introduced in 2013 and 2019, failed to deliver the expected results because of insufficient large-scale smelting capacity. Exemptions allowed companies to continue exporting concentrate.

The situation began to change in 2020, when the modern Lualaba plant began operating in the country thanks to investments by Chinese state-owned mining company CNMC and Yunnan Copper. Its annual capacity is 400,000 tons of concentrate, but this is still insufficient to process all the raw material mined in Congo.

The 2023 ban was also accompanied by exemptions, including for the major Kamoa-Kakula complex, a joint project of Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining Group that began production in 2021.

In exchange for being allowed to continue exports, Ivanhoe Mines committed to building a new smelter. The facility, with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, was launched last year. Since February, it has been operating at around 60% of its design capacity.

Signs of Congo’s gradual shift toward domestic processing are already visible in trade statistics: in the first half of 2026, China’s imports of copper concentrate from Congo fell 31% year on year.

As smelter utilization increases, the gap between concentrate mining and processing is expected to narrow. At the same time, the new ban provides for “strategic” exemptions if domestic capacity proves insufficient.

Why the copper market reacts so sharply to risks

According to Goldman Sachs, Congo’s ban will not have a significant impact on the overall balance of the global copper market. However, it adds to tensions in the raw materials market, where smelters are already competing for concentrate and treatment charges have fallen into negative territory.

The shortage of concentrate and pressure on smelters remain among the main arguments cited by market participants expecting copper prices to rise further. That is why even Congo’s move, limited in its direct effect, triggered such a sharp reaction.

Sensitivity to supply disruptions is most acute on the London Metal Exchange. The market is simultaneously experiencing demand from China and a strong pull of metal toward the United States because of ongoing risks that import tariffs may be imposed.

Copper inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses have fallen from 401,000 tons at the beginning of May to 214,550 tons. Of that volume, 58% is held as canceled warrants, meaning the metal is already awaiting physical withdrawal from exchange warehouses.

Another 138,408 tons of copper are held outside the exchange warehouse system, but 79% of these stocks are located in U.S. ports. This metal can clear customs quickly if the premium for delivery to CME compared with LME continues to rise.

Tension in the London market is reflected in spreads between the price of metal for immediate delivery and three-month contracts. Although the benchmark copper price has already retreated from last week’s highs, the spot premium continued to increase and reached $171 per ton on Monday – the highest level since October last year.

If inventories in LME warehouses continue to decline due to shipments to Asia and the United States, the copper market may once again react sharply to any news of supply risks.