Canada and the EU may be creating a new kind of partnership.
QUÉBEC CITY — In his latest remarks on Canada’s trade relationship with the United States, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced an end to the latest round of negotiations and the pursuit of retaliatory tariffs. He also looked across the Atlantic, saying that Canada would “begin discussions with the European Union — the world’s second-largest economy — to build a much stronger and deeper security and economic partnership.”
His remarks have triggered renewed speculation about Canada joining the bloc. The idea was already gaining traction before Carney’s speech, with European politicians including Finnish President Alexander Stubb and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot calling for Canada to launch an accession bid. Public opinion polling also shows large pluralities on both sides of the Atlantic in favor of Canada exploring membership.
But the speculation obscures the moves Canada and the EU are actually making. Asked last June about a membership application, Carney gave a clear no: “That’s not the pathway we’re on.” In fact, neither the Canadian government nor the European Commission has indicated that formal accession is under consideration.
So if Canadian membership is off the table, what exactly is this new partnership supposed to become?
With Carney due to attend the upcoming State of the European Union address in Strasbourg and the EU-Canada summit scheduled for October, the question isn’t about enlargement to North America, but whether Canada and the EU can construct a new model of integration.
Why Canada needs Europe
Carney’s most recent statements build on his address at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, where he described his country’s turn towards Europe as “diversification” and a “hedge against uncertainty” prompted by an increasingly confrontational Washington.
Canada has good reasons to diversify. “Seventy-six percent of Canadian foreign trade is with the United States, compared to 8% with the countries of the European Union”, said Stéphane Dion, former head of the Liberal Party and Canada’s ambassador to Europe, in an address in Montreal this spring.
That imbalance makes it difficult for Canada to follow the path of non-member states such as Norway or Switzerland, which have integrated closely into the European Economic Area, or EEA. Joining the EEA, “would supersede Canada’s existing trade agreements and would replace them with the trade agreements concluded by the EU,” said Achif Hurrelmann, political scientist at Carleton University in Ottawa.
Even a major reorientation in Canadian trade towards Europe wouldn’t come close to replacing the U.S. market. “If Canada succeeds in its economic diversification,” Dion said in his Montreal address,” it could hope to reduce the share of its foreign trade with the United States from 76% as it is today to about 50-60%.”
There are also reasons for Brussels to favor a slower and more informal path of integration. “Canada has a lot of what Europe needs, but in Europe there is not enough of an understanding of how decentralized Canada is,” said Thomas Verellen, professor of European law at Utrecht University.
Or as political scientist Johannes Müller Gómez of McGill University put it in an article published in April last year: “If Canada were to join, the famously sluggish “German vote” would suddenly look like a fast-track procedure … “
Still, Hurrelmann points to infrastructure projects already underway to shift Canadian trade towards Europe, including the liquid natural gas deal between Ottawa and the German state-owned energy company SEFE to develop a new export terminal on Canada’s west coast.
Sector by sector
Even before the latest breakdown in trade negotiations, Canada had been vocal about deepening its relationship with Europe. “We see growing opportunities to work with Europe on security and defence, economic resilience, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, supply chains, energy security, and support for Ukraine” Charlotte Macleod, spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada, told the Parliament in an email.
The shift is already visible in a series of recent deals. In February, Canada made headlines as the first non-European country to join the EU’s new defense initiative, SAFE. A month later, it announced a partnership with the European Investment Bank aimed at expanding Canada’s capacity to extract, process, and export rare earth minerals to Europe. In June, Canada inked a deal to purchase a new fleet of submarines from a German company.
To Verellen, the main advantage of this sector-by-sector approach is that new agreements can build on existing frameworks without waiting for a comprehensive arrangement like EU or EEA membership. The Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement between Canada and the EU, signed in 2016, is still awaiting full ratification in Europe. But even if only partially ratified, CETA provides a structure for deeper cooperation.
Verellen described the potential trajectory simply. “Over time, Canada could build something that looks like a quasi-membership through sectoral cooperation on minerals, defense and the service economy.”
The service economy offers considerable room for cooperation within frameworks established by the CETA. In 2024, as part of a CETA process, Canada and the EU agreed on reciprocal standards for architecture certifications. An architect trained in Copenhagen can now move to Toronto and retain their professional credentials, and vice-versa. According to Verellen, similar arrangements could be rolled out for highly specialized professions, such as engineers, doctors, nurses and computer scientists.
And the rapprochement isn’t confined to trade and defense. This month, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation officially joined the European Broadcaster’s Union. The CBC had been an associate member of the EBU since 1950, but chose this year “to deepen and formalize its relationship with the EBU,” said EBU spokesperson Claire Rainford. The CBC’s election was approved unanimously.
“Members recognized the value that full [Canadian] Membership would bring to the Union, including stronger collaboration on trusted journalism, platform accountability and content exchange,” Rainford said.
However, it likely wouldn’t be smooth sailing across every sector. The Arctic in particular could prove a source of tension.
While both parties share an interest in defending the region against Russia, Canada views large sections of the Arctic as its sovereign territory, and hasn’t always welcomed EU efforts to become more involved. In 2009, Ottawa blocked the EU’s attempt to secure a seat on the Arctic Council in response to the bloc’s embargo on seal products. Canada and the EU also disagree over international agreement that would establish the Northwest passage as international waters.
The main reason, however, that some member states that have held out on ratifying CETA is concern about agricultural competition. If there’s one thing French and Canadian dairy farmers can agree on, it’s that neither wants completely free trade with the other.
A new model for EU partnerships
To Verellen, the significance of Canada’s turn toward Europe extends beyond the bilateral relationship. If the EU can develop a new way of structuring partnerships with countries that cannot, or don’t want to, pursue accession, the “Canada model” could become a template for other democracies looking to deepen their ties with Europe while reducing their dependence on the U.S. China or Russia.
That could give the EU a role beyond its traditional regional sphere: not merely a European power bloc, but the center of a broader network of democratic small and middle powers. Canada may be the most eager candidate for such an experiment. Whatever form the Canadian model ultimately takes, Verellen argues, Europe has an interest in making it successful, formal and replicable.
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