Can Ukraine’s drones shut Russian airspace? What that means for airlines | Russia-Ukraine war

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russian airspace is effectively closed because of the volume of Ukrainian drones in the sky.

On Tuesday, he said that Russia, which began the war with the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, is now “closing its own skies”.

While Kyiv is not threatening civil aviation, Zelenskyy said, “there will be drones in Russia’s skies and due notice must be taken” by airlines and insurance companies.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called Zelenskyy’s comments “a declaration of state terrorism”.

So, can Ukraine really shut down Russia’s airspace? And what happens if the airspace of the world’s largest country becomes inaccessible?

What has Zelenskyy said?

Ukrainian drones have increasingly threatened or disrupted air traffic at Russian airports in recent months.

As Russia has stepped up its use of ballistic missiles against Ukraine, Kyiv has struggled to intercept them due to a lack of ammunition for its air defence systems, particularly United States-made Patriot systems.

Ukraine has, instead, responded by striking Russian infrastructure, oil and port facilities, and even e-commerce warehouses, deep inside Russian territory.

“Today, we want to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer and everyone who still uses Russia’s key airports: Russian airspace is becoming completely unsafe,” Zelenskyy said during his nightly address on Tuesday.

“Ukraine does not threaten civilian aviation as such – not a single civilian aircraft. There will simply be drones in Russia’s skies on a scale that has to be taken into account,” he said.

“Drone-infested skies are no place for civilian aviation,” Zelenskyy said on Tuesday. “The sky over Russia is currently for drones … as long as the war continues.”

“We in Ukraine do not want innocent lives to be lost. That is why we are warning our partners: The safe days in Russia’s skies are over,” Zelenskyy added.

How much of a threat do Ukrainian drones pose?

Unmanned drones, which Ukraine now mass-produces at low cost, have transformed the Ukraine-Russia war theatre, allowing Kyiv to take the fight hundreds of kilometres beyond the front line and increasingly into Russia’s major cities.

Analysts say that the distance they can reach is now more of a concern than the damage they can inflict as they are interfering with civilian aviation well inside Russia, including around Moscow.

As Ukraine has developed drone technology at an exponential rate since the start of the war, drones have become much longer-range. Ukraine says its deep-strike range has grown from about 630km (390 miles) in 2022 to 1,750km (1,090 miles) this year, with drones striking targets as far as Omsk, about 2,500km (1,550 miles) from Ukraine.

When they approach Russian cities, they trigger temporary restrictions in the airspace above, halting arrivals and departures at airports until the perceived threat passes, which can take several hours. Repeated drone alerts have forced temporary restrictions at Russian airports and are increasingly causing concern for general aircraft flying through Russian airspace.

“Ukraine has consistently launched more than 500 drones near daily, with multiple days exceeding 1,000 drones, according to figures released by the Russian [Ministry of Defence],” said Mark Brace, head of analysis at the aviation risk advisory firm Osprey Flight Solutions. This has caused frequent and extended airport closures and flight suspensions, he told Al Jazeera.

“Essentially, Zelenskyy is articulating publicly what Ukraine has been doing for months: systematically disrupting Russian airspace.”

According to data from Osprey, there has been an average of 30 Russian airport closures per day since the war began.

In an alert to its clients, Osprey Flight Solutions said that while the majority of Ukraine’s drone and missile strikes are likely to occur within 300km (186 miles) of the border between the two countries, daily attacks deeper inside Russia are likely to continue throughout the rest of 2026, including near Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

“It is assessed that miscalculation and/or misidentification is likely in areas related to the Ukraine conflict,” the alert said.

Last year, Putin told Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev that two Russian missiles had detonated beside an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in 2024 after Ukrainian drones entered Russian airspace, in an incident that killed 38 people.

How does this impact airlines and passengers?

“Russian airspace remains the single biggest structural distortion in global aviation,” Alex Macheras, an analyst based in the Middle East, said.

Before February 2022, flying over Russia was the shortest path between Europe and Northeast Asia, with more than 360,000 flights a year passing over Siberia, he told Al Jazeera. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, many European and US carriers have avoided this route.

As a result, many Europe-Northeast Asia routes now take two to four hours longer, Macheras said, while the Helsinki-Tokyo route has gone from nine hours to 13.

“It’s a cost now factored into ticket prices, operational overheads, crew rosters, and aircraft utilisation across the entire European long-haul network,” Macheras said.

Despite the ongoing war, some major airlines from countries such as China, Turkiye, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states have continued to use Russian airspace.

US airlines have complained that carriers still permitted to fly through Russian airspace, such as Chinese airlines, enjoy a competitive advantage with shorter routes and reduced operating costs. If Russian airspace does close to these operators, this competitive advantage will disappear.

Currently, Chinese carriers offer the fastest Europe-Asia and Asia-Europe connections by retaining Russian overflight rights. “Lose that, and their schedule advantage over Gulf and Turkish hubs narrows sharply,” Macheras said.

Meanwhile, Turkish Airlines has built “real strategic value from its neutral access to Russian airspace, positioning Istanbul as the natural connection point for traffic that Western carriers can no longer route directly,” the aviation analyst said.

He added that Indian carriers – Air India in particular – also rely on Russian airspace for efficient Delhi-London and Delhi-New York routings.

Gulf carriers, from airports in Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, on the other hand, the analyst argued, do not depend on Russian airspace the way Istanbul does. “A broader closure would likely reinforce the Gulf hub model, rather than damage it, as long-haul traffic gets pushed further south through the Gulf rather than through the Caucasus corridor,” he added.

Is the aviation sector facing other pressures?

Conflicts in the Middle East have shaken the aviation industry over the past couple of years, compounding disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Osprey Flight Solutions’ Brace told Al Jazeera that “alternative routings through the Caucasus and Central Asia and the Middle East/Red Sea/Saudi Arabia/Gulf region are already congested due to the lack of availability of Russian airspace and the ongoing conflict in the Gulf region”.

Other regional factors, such as Indian carriers being restricted from using Pakistani airspace due to bilateral tensions in South Asia, have worsened that congestion.

“Despite some parts of the Middle East/Gulf airspace opening up during lulls in conflict activity in recent months, there has been no significant return to using Iraq/Iran airspace as corridors, for example,” Brace said, “primarily due to carrier risk assessments and regulators banning operators from these areas.”

The renewed fighting between the US and Iran this week will also “put further pressure on the alternative corridors”, Brace said.

Rising jet fuel prices have been another major concern for airlines. On Monday, China’s top three airlines posted losses for the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, Middle East airlines are expected collectively to fall into losses because of the war.

What happens when air traffic is disrupted?

Air traffic is similar to road traffic: When major roads and intersections are closed, cars, buses and cyclists are forced onto smaller neighbourhood streets and lanes, creating congestion and longer journeys. The same thing happens in the sky.

Azerbaijan, sandwiched between Russia to the north and Iran to the south, is an example.

Because of the conflicts involving both Russia and Iran, Azerbaijan has become a vital air corridor enabling airlines to operate between Europe and Asia.

Azerbaijan’s air traffic chief has noted that before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, his country handled an average of 278 flights a day. By the end of 2025, that had risen to an average of 695 per day.

After the US and Israel attacked Iran in February this year, flights over Azerbaijan increased to a daily average of 810 during March. Azerbaijan handled a peak of 1,062 flights in a single day on May 9.

If Russian airspace becomes completely out of bounds, theoretically, analyst Macheras noted, “very little spare capacity exists” in already congested skies.

“The Caucasus corridor is barely 100 miles [161km] wide at its narrowest point, and it’s already handling detoured traffic from both the Russian closure and, more recently, Middle East disruptions tied to regional conflict,” he added. “Any further Russian airspace restriction would push still more volume onto a corridor that is already near saturation, driving fares and journey times higher across the board.”