Cameroon: “Absence of an agreement with the IMF increases the country’s risk of over-indebtedness”

As of the end of June 2026, Cameroon has a public debt stock of XAF 15.607 trillion (approximately USD 27 billion), according to the latest monthly public debt report published on July 27, 2026 by the Autonomous Amortization Fund (CAA). Following this information, Cameroonian economic analyst Louis-Marie Kakdeu published an article entitled “Cameroon’s survival depends on the conclusion of a new program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)”.

For the man who is also a politician, second vice-president of the Social Democratic Front (SDF), an opposition political party, “the country remains classified as at high risk of external over-indebtedness by the debt sustainability analysis, despite a slight improvement”. This “slight improvement” is reflected in Cameroon’s repayment capacity moving from “weak” to “medium”. A nuance that does not change the fundamental issue. And for good reason, 87% of new loans signed in June 2026 are non-concessional, contrary to the official strategy which favors concessional financing.

“In Cameroon, debt service is taking up an increasing share of public revenues,” explains Louis Marie Kakdeu. For him, “85.8% of the cumulative service in the first half of 2026 was devoted to principal alone.” Another worrying signal is the low resource mobilization rate (61%). Indeed, the Cameroonian economic analyst indicates that “between January and March 2026, the State only mobilized XAF 1,331.7 billion (approximately USD 2.3 billion) out of a quarterly target of XAF 2,181 billion (approximately USD 3.8 billion). External disbursements, on the other hand, only reach 36.2% of the semi-annual forecasts of the 2026 Finance Law.

Unconsolidated liabilities also threaten to worsen official ratios. In his analysis, Louis Marie Kadeu cites information from the CAA on the debt of SOCADEL (approximately XAF 800 billion (nearly USD 1.4 billion)), that of decentralized territorial communities (CTDs) to the Special Equipment and Intervention Fund for Municipalities (FEICOM) (XAF 121 billion (nearly USD 210 million)), or the public-private partnerships (PPPs) of the Kribi refinery (XAF 540 billion (nearly USD 882 million)) and the PAD power plant (XAF 626 billion (approximately USD 1.08 billion)).

The budget orientation debate (DOB), held in the National Assembly on July 3, 2026 and then in the Senate on July 7, 2026, allowed the Minister of Finance to present the macroeconomic and budgetary guidelines for 2027-2029. On paper, the orientation ticks the right boxes. It includes the new IMF program, budget discipline, and broadening the tax base. But Louis Marie Kakdeu points out “a gap between this sustainability discourse and recent practice, illustrated by the private international issuance of XAF 474 billion (nearly USD 820 million) carried out outside traditional multilateral channels”.

The previous agreement (FEC/MEDC) ended in late July 2025, and negotiations for 2026-2029 have been dragging on for a year. According to the Cameroonian economist, a failure would open “a true vicious circle characterized by the loss of nearly XAF 94 billion (nearly USD 163 million) in concessional financing, the possible downgrade of the current “B” sovereign rating with a negative outlook, and the mechanical increase in the cost of debt, as the January 2026 eurobond was already issued at a coupon of 8.875%”.

The shockwave would extend beyond Cameroonian borders. The CEMAC exchange reserves, already down by XAF 1,335.7 billion (approximately USD 2.3 billion) between March and November 2025, about a month’s worth of imports, could weaken the peg of the CFA franc and regional monetary stability.

For Louis Marie Kakdeu, “the conclusion of an IMF program is therefore not an option among others, but a condition for budgetary survival”. Without hope that Yaoundé will be able to translate the intentions of the DOB into concrete results.