Brazil vs Norway Prediction, Odds & Match Preview
Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a Brazil vs Norway prediction for their round of 16 matchup in East Rutherford.
Brazil vs Norway: World Cup Odds
Brazil vs Norway: Anytime Goal Odds
Check back later for Brazil vs Norway anytime goalscorer odds from BetMGM.
Norway vs Brazil Prediction
Based on Norway’s poor defensive record and Brazil’s weak metrics against good teams, my Brazil vs Norway prediction is Both Teams to Score – “Yes” (-115).
I need to present this analysis with a massive caveat. In a vacuum, both defenses lack the necessary trust to keep the opponent out.
The issue? Temperatures are expected to rise into the mid- to high-90s in New Jersey on Sunday. Generally speaking, that leads to fewer chances for attacks historically.
Both teams also played their round of 32 matches indoors. Brazil beat Japan 2-1 in Houston while Norway beat Ivory Coast 2-1 in Dallas.
Pair that angle with the high-leverage swings of World Cup knockout games, and this could easily prove a low-scoring game.
If not for that concern, goals would normally flow in a matchup like this one. All of Norway’s matches saw both teams score, while two of Brazil’s four fixtures saw both teams score.
Brazil will arrive at this fixture having faced two top-20 teams by ELO ratings. Both Japan and Morocco found a tally against the Brazil defense, with both teams opening the scoring.
Norway outpaces those teams by six and seven spots, respectively. It marks Brazil manager Carlo Ancelotti’s first competitive game as manager against a top-10 ELO-rated team.
Morocco reached 1.4 expected goals against Brazil while Japan notched 0.3. However, both teams cleared 0.7 post-shot xG, per FotMob.
The former found a tally through a direct ball centrally to Isamael Saibari. A similar strategy could work for Norway as they play through Erling Haaland against the strong Brazil defense.
At the same time, Brazil possesses attacking strength that directly contrasts Norway’s defensive weakness.
Wingers Vinicius Junior and Rayan likely pose problems to the Norway fullbacks. Bettors saw that strategy on display against the Ivory Coast, who scored via winger Amad Diallo.
Even if you discount Norway’s match against France, the defense struggled against Senegal and Ivory Coast. Those teams scored three goals off 3.1 xG and 2.8 psxG.
Given those factors, I’m confident Brazil scores at least once. Key to this match is whether Norway can overcome the heat and contribute a goal. At minimum, I’m intrigued by the price.