Before the September Deadline, Inside Qaani’s Night in Baghdad to Avert a Clash

On Monday night, Esmail Qaani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force — a U.S.-designated terrorist organization — moved between several locations across Baghdad on a visit that was never officially announced. The secrecy was hardly unusual: Qaani’s previous trips to the Iraqi capital have also taken place out of public view.

But the timing was significant. Qaani arrived with just 50 days remaining before a Sept. 30 deadline set by the Iraqi government for armed factions to surrender their weapons, as Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi seeks to bring all arms under state control and Tehran moves to prevent the effort from triggering a confrontation with its Iraqi allies.

Qaani, who visits Baghdad only when “something momentous” is at stake, according to a senior figure in the ruling Coordination Framework, came this time to “nip the strife in the bud” and to stress the need to avoid a “clash” between the government and armed factions aligned with Tehran.

During the visit, he held a series of meetings with senior figures in the Coordination Framework and leaders of armed factions.

The Coordination Framework, a political coalition of Iraq’s Shiite parties, has close ties to Tehran-aligned factions, leaving al-Zaidi to balance those relationships against his effort to bring weapons under exclusive state control.

Before Qaani’s arrival, a delegation from the Coordination Framework had been expected to travel to Tehran to discuss the same issue, with talks originally planned to take place in the Iranian capital rather than Baghdad.

But information described as “urgent” reached Qaani and changed those plans, prompting him to travel to Baghdad himself rather than receive the delegation in Tehran.

Al-Zaidi is seeking to resolve the issue of factional weapons before the deadline set by his government. A series of government statements have said that, once the deadline expires, any armed activity outside the authority of the state will be dealt with under Iraq’s counterterrorism law.

In recent days, units from Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service have moved toward Baghdad, in what appeared to be a message from al-Zaidi to factions refusing to “comply” with the state’s decision.

Information obtained by MBN indicates that Qaani’s visit focused primarily on the factions’ weapons.

But according to Coordination Framework sources who spoke to MBN, one issue in particular prompted Qaani to make the trip: Jurf al-Sakhar. The Iranian general had received information from within the factions that the prime minister intended to send forces into the area, which was later renamed Jurf al-Nasr.

Jurf al-Nasr lies about 60 kilometers southwest of Baghdad in Babil province. It was once home to an estimated 140,000 people, according to Iraq’s Ministry of Migration and Displacement, most of them members of the Janabi tribe, predominantly Sunni and largely farmers.

The Islamic State seized the area in mid-2014. Iraqi forces recaptured it during Operation Ashura, launched on Oct. 24 that year, with the participation of Iraqi security forces and Popular Mobilization Forces factions, including Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, both designated by the United States as terrorist organizations, as well as the Badr Organization and Saraya al-Salam.

The area has remained under military closure ever since. Reports have long circulated that it contains faction headquarters, weapons depots, military camps and drone-manufacturing facilities.

The town is completely isolated. Even government and military officials are barred from entering, and its residents have not been allowed to return for nearly 12 years.

Sources in the Iraqi government told MBN that Counter Terrorism Service units and other military forces had been placed on standby to enter the area at any moment.

The sources said word of those preparations was leaked by faction leaders to Tehran, which views Jurf al-Sakhar as a strategic location. Qaani arrived in Baghdad shortly afterward.

At the same time, Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service and intelligence service penetrated an armed network that had been planning drone attacks, according to sources who spoke to MBN. Members of the network were arrested as security forces deployed, and equipment and drones were seized. The operation took place in Babil province, where Jurf al-Sakhar is located.

In his meetings, Qaani stressed the “importance” of preventing tensions from escalating into a “clash” between security forces and the factions. At the same time, however, he urged Coordination Framework leaders to speak with al-Zaidi about the need to avoid “breaking the factions and weakening them,” according to the senior Framework figure.

But al-Zaidi appears determined to confront any faction that refuses to give up its weapons after the government’s deadline, according to the same official, citing indications available to the Coordination Framework.

Shiite political leaders, meanwhile, have been engaged in talks and mediation aimed at reaching an “understanding” between al-Zaidi and the factions. Under one proposal, the factions would retain their weapons but refrain from attacking U.S. interests or Gulf states targeted by Tehran.

A source close to al-Zaidi told MBN that the proposal was “unconvincing,” adding that “the prime minister is moving toward asserting the power of the state, and the matter is not subject to political bargains.”

Qaani had secured no breakthrough from his visit as of Tuesday evening, when the trip was still underway. By then, he had also been unable to meet with al-Zaidi.

The Iraqi prime minister “is seeking a political relationship with Iran, not a military one, and he will not agree to receive a military commander,” the source close to al-Zaidi told MBN.

The United States has been pressing Iraq to disarm Iran-aligned factions, a step al-Zaidi pledged to take during a visit to Washington, where he met President Donald Trump before traveling to Tehran.

Iran, for its part, sees al-Zaidi’s government as closer to Washington than to Tehran, fueling concern over its interests in Iraq, particularly the armed factions that supported Iran during the U.S.-Israeli war.

Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.