Argentina vs. Egypt prediction, pick for Tuesday 7/7/26

In the World Cup Round of 32, basically every match came down to the wire. Perhaps nowhere was that more evident than the bottom right quadrant of the bracket, where Egypt’s win over Australia on penalties arguably wasn’t the most intense and dramatic encounter of Friday’s slate. That honor could instead belong to Argentina’s 3-2 thriller against Cape Verde.

Now, both the Albiceleste and the Pharaohs have had three days off to recover from their nail-biting extra time affairs, and they’ll face off on Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line. The winner will face either Colombia or Switzerland, who will face off later Tuesday.

Argentina is a -270 favorite to win in regular time (-650 to advance to the quarterfinals) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Egypt is +800 (+450 to advance). There are +380 odds that the match will be level after 90 minutes.

Below, I’ll break down this much-anticipated clash and provide my favorite bet.

Argentina vs. Egypt Best Bet:

• Argentina -1.5 (+110): Argentina will come out motivated after getting pushed to the brink by Cape Verde, and the Blue Sharks are a better team than the Pharaohs are. Egypt has allowed plenty of high-quality looks, and the Albiceleste are too clinical not to take advantage of them. Meanwhile, Argentina has forced a lot of difficult shots, and the Pharaohs have been wasteful with their chances.

Argentina vs. Egypt prediction, pick

Despite getting a scare from the Blue Sharks, the Albiceleste have looked like one of the best teams in the competition so far. They were one of just three teams to pick up all nine possible points in the group stage, and they didn’t play poorly against Cape Verde, which never looked particularly likely to win without a penalty shootout despite an all-time performance. The defending champions have certainly had a more comfortable time than Egypt, which gave up a late equalizer to Belgium in its opening match, nearly lost to Iran late after Team Melli’s winner was ruled offsides by a toe, and got fairly fortunate against the Socceroos. Argentina can’t get too far ahead of itself, but if both teams produce an average effort, the South Americans should progress easily.

The Albiceleste are far more talented on paper. Lionel Messi has proven virtually immune to aging, scoring in all four of his matches so far to maintain his lead in the all-time record books as he scraps with Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland for this tournament’s Golden Boot. Additionally, Lautaro Martínez, Lisandro Martínez, and Giovani Lo Celso have all chipped in with goals of their own to help Argentina manage the ninth-most expected goals per match on the seventh-most shots on target. The Albiceleste have been clinical with their passes, completing them at the third-highest rate overall, and they’ve managed the most through balls per game. Their attack hasn’t even been their stronger side; only Spain has allowed fewer expected goals per match, and only La Roja and Colombia have allowed fewer shots on target. Argentina also ranks second in tackles per match despite dominating possession, and in between the sticks, Emiliano Martínez remains one of the world’s most-feared keepers despite letting two in against the Blue Sharks. The Albiceleste certainly aren’t perfect defensively — it hasn’t forced many high turnovers and has won fewer than half of its aerial duels — but combined Messi’s singular brilliance, it should be competitive against any team.

All in all, the Pharaohs are probably the worst team still in the tournament. Their attack has some talent, as Mohamed Salah, who had one of the greatest individual seasons in Premier League history in 2024-25 to help Liverpool end Manchester City’s title streak, has produced three goal contributions and Al Ahly’s Emam Ashour has been a breakout star. Still, Egypt’s 1.28 expected goals per match and 25.8% shot-on-target percentage are both the lowest of any team remaining in the competition, and only the United States has completed passes at a lower rate than its 85.4%. Defensively, the Pharaohs have been good but not great; they’ve given up 1.35 expected goals per match, among the most of any team remaining, and they’ve allowed opponents to attempt nearly two-thirds of their shots within the box. Egypt has been fairly compact, ranking eighth in clearances per match and not yet allowing a fast-break goal, but it has been extremely poor against set pieces. The Pharaohs have a lot of chemistry, as three of their five defensive starters play together for Cairo-based Al Ahly (by far the most decorated team in Africa), but they got pretty fortunate that Australia put just one of its 16 shots on target.

Argentina seemed motivated after its scare against the Blue Sharks, and it’ll likely come out firing on Tuesday. Egypt, which has been on the front foot for much of the tournament, might be unprepared to sit back and defend. The Pharaohs won’t make it easy, but the Albiceleste eventually found a way to put three past Cape Verde’s even more disciplined and more compact defense, and for as good as Mostafa Shobeir has been this tournament, the Blue Sharks’ Vozinha is probably a tougher test overall. Egypt has been wont to give up set pieces, and Argentina has been too clinical from such situations. The Pharaohs are also unlikely to take advantage of the Albiceleste’s struggles to win aerial duels, given their own low win rate. A multi-win goal for Argentina seems reasonable.

Best Bet: Argentina -1.5 (+110)

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