Analyst warns Iran deal leaves missiles, proxies & enriched uranium untouched
WASHINGTON (TNND) — Negotiations between the United States and Iran continue. Still, recent steps have already shifted the landscape, Janatan Sayeh, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who was born and raised in Tehran and studies Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional influence, told The National News Desk.
What stands out is that the United States has already met what it described as its obligations “vis-à-vis the regime,” including the removal of a naval blockade and the issuance of a sanctions waiver that he said allows Iran not only to sell oil but also to repatriate the proceeds.
Sayeh said Iran’s leadership has long prioritized what he described as deterrence, pointing to missiles, proxies and its nuclear program. He said the current framework does not appear to move toward dismantling those capabilities, and he argued that the memorandum of understanding does not require Iran to hand over or dilute its enriched uranium.
“What we see in the MOU is that it simply paves the way for the enriched uranium to be simply discussed,” Sayeh said.
He also said the memorandum does not address the dismantlement of missiles or proxies.
Sayeh discussed what he described as a dual-track approach tied to a recent visit by the secretary of state, saying one goal is to maintain close ties with countries he said have been under Iranian “barrages,” including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain. He noted those countries host U.S. personnel and have “more or less normalized ties with Israel.”
He said another focus is discussions around unfreezing Iranian assets and potential financial arrangements.
Sayeh said there were discussions “around one way or another, providing 200 billion worth of a credit line,” with part of it financed by Gulf states, and he also pointed to unfreezing assets held in Qatar.
Sayeh said a central challenge remains identifying exactly who is negotiating on Iran’s side. He said that during the war, “the political leadership, for the most part, remained intact,” while military leaders were replaced. He said Iran’s president and other senior political figures were “by design, kept alive so they can actually, maybe ideally, work toward a better deal.”
He also said there are internal divisions even within Iran’s hardline base, with some opposing concessions to the United States and negotiations with President Donald Trump.
On China’s role, Sayeh said public neutrality does not tell the full story.
“The neutrality tends to be just on the public side,” he said, arguing that China stands to benefit most from oil waivers because, he said, it is providing an economic lifeline to Iran. “So it benefits Beijing more than anyone,” he said.