Analysis: Ukraine, Russia and the Battle for Public Opinion

My latest polling, which I unveiled this week at the Black Sea Security Forum in Odesa, reveals much about how opinion is evolving in Ukraine and among some of its key allies. It also provides a telling insight into Russians’ views about the war and their own regime.

The war: progress and duration

Some strategists have begun talking about the conflict reaching its “endgame.” Whatever the truth of that, Ukrainians are not getting their hopes up yet: I found a majority expecting it to continue for at least another year. Only just over one in three think it will be over by the end of 2026, and most believe the confrontation with Iran has made the conclusion of their own conflict more distant. Russians are even more likely to think the war will still be going on a year from now.

As for how things are going, only 16 per cent of Ukrainians think they currently have the upper hand – down from nearly half of those we surveyed a year into the conflict in 2023. Two thirds believe no side currently has a clear advantage, as they did last year, even though Russia has experienced net territorial losses over that time. Majorities in the five allied countries we surveyed – the UK, the US, Germany, France and Poland – also agreed that neither side was in an obviously stronger position. Notably, though, in each country the dissenting minority was more likely to think things were going Russia’s way than Ukraine’s.

Realistic objectives

Fewer than one quarter of Ukrainians told us there was no chance of winning back all the territory taken since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. However, the majority were divided between wanting to fight until all Russian-occupied territory was regained, and thinking that while this would be possible the cost of the war was too great and Ukraine would have to accept ceding some land for peace. Perhaps significantly, older people were more likely to want to keep fighting until all the invaded territory had been regained.

In a reversal of the situation in the months after the invasion, three quarters of Ukrainians say they expect a diplomatic rather than a military settlement to the war. Expectations lean the same way in our five allied countries: Poles are the most likely to expect things to be settled militarily, but fewer than a quarter of them think this will be the outcome. Whether significantly or not, Russians are nearly twice as likely as Ukrainians to think the solution will be military rather than diplomatic – though a majority still expect the latter.

Help from the West

Fewer Ukrainians think their allies are doing enough to help than they did three years ago – especially the US, the EU and NATO. They are clear about what they want their friends to provide: weapons, tanks and military equipment easily top the list. NATO membership, stricter sanctions, financial aid, troops on the ground and a no-fly zone all come ahead of diplomatic efforts to reach a peace deal with Russia.

But when we ask the public in our five allied countries what help they would be willing to offer Ukraine, the answers come in a rather different order. They are overwhelmingly willing to supply humanitarian aid, though this comes close to the bottom of the list for Ukrainians themselves. People in Britain and Poland were also largely willing to impose stricter sanctions against Russia, though only just over half agreed in the US, Germany and France. Diplomatic efforts to reach a peace deal were also popular, though with some skepticism in Poland. And while more than 6 in 10 Britons said they would support Ukrainian membership of NATO, those in the US and France were more hesitant and only minorities in Germany and Poland agreed.

Just over half in Britain said they would be willing for the country to offer more military support, with slightly lower numbers among the other allies. There was also lukewarm support for the idea of binding security guarantees – though I also found that few Ukrainians would have complete confidence in such guarantees if they were offered. Not at all surprisingly given their history, two thirds said they would have either not much confidence or no confidence in this kind of assurance.

Asking specifically whether they would support sending troops to Ukraine join an international peacekeeping force in the event of a peace deal, we once again find a majority in favor in Britain, and the public more supportive than opposed in France and the US. However, the balance was slightly against in Germany, and a majority opposed the idea in Poland.

Among our five allied countries, only the British and American publics said their countries’ efforts should aim for complete victory, even at the expense of prolonging the war. By varying margins, people elsewhere tended to prioritize an earlier end to the conflict, even at the expense of Ukrainian territory.

Russian opinion

If you think opinion surveys in Russia should be treated with caution, I agree with you – but I think we can learn something from the trends. I found support for the so-called “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine well down since the invasion, with around one third of Russians prepared to say that they disapprove of the action, and more skepticism that it was necessary to protect Russia’s national security. I also found nearly half of Russians saying that Western sanctions were having a negative impact on their life, up from 38 per cent a year ago. Trust in Vladimir Putin is also down, and among the majority who say life is getting worse, the federal government is seen as the biggest culprit.

Overall, the results show a realistic but determined Ukraine and an American public in some respects more supportive of Ukraine’s sovereignty and security than its current government, and even some European societies. Maintaining their engagement, and that of other allies, will be essential in the weeks and months to come.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.

Lord Ashcroft is a businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. His research is at LordAshcroftPolls.com. X/Facebook @LordAshcroft

The original presentation can be read here.