Abiove raises soymeal export forecast and trims Brazil soybean crop estimate for 2026
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, known as Abiove, revised its 2026 soybean supply and demand balance on Friday, August 21. The association raised its forecast for soymeal exports to 25.3 million metric tons, up from 24.9 million, while trimming its estimate for national soybean production to 180.464 million metric tons from 180.568 million.
The crop adjustment follows the latest survey by Brazil’s crop agency Conab, released on August 13.
With the lower production estimate and higher soymeal export forecast, Abiove also reduced its ending stock projections. For soybeans, projected inventories fell 1.6%, to 6.479 million metric tons from 6.583 million. For soymeal, ending stocks were cut 8.9%, to 4.096 million metric tons from 4.496 million.
All other projections were unchanged. Soybean imports remained estimated at 900,000 metric tons, while the volume allocated to seeds and other uses stayed at 3 million metric tons. Soybean exports were maintained at 115.4 million metric tons.
Abiove also kept its soybean processing forecast at 63.3 million metric tons. According to the association, if confirmed, that volume would set a new record for soybean crushing in Brazil.
Among soybean products, soymeal output remained projected at 48.7 million metric tons, with domestic consumption at 21.4 million. For soybean oil, estimates were unchanged at 12.75 million metric tons for production, 1.7 million for exports, 125,000 for imports, 11 million for domestic consumption and 836,000 for ending stocks.
In a statement, Abiove said the consolidated data point to continued production and processing momentum in Brazil. The association also said cumulative soybean processing rose 7.7% year on year through June to 28.30 million metric tons.
In June alone, processing totaled 4.95 million metric tons, down 5.3% from May but up 7.3% from June 2025, after adjustment for the sample percentage.
Data obtained by Datamar and made available through DataLiner show only a slight 2% decline in soybean meal export volumes in the first half of 2026. The chart below shows how these exports have evolved over the years:
Soybean Meal Exports | Jan 2023 – Jun 2026 | WTMT
Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)
Daniel Furlan Amaral, Abiove’s director of economics and regulatory affairs, said the revised estimates reflect the continued strength of domestic soybean processing and external demand for soymeal.
He said the increase in year-to-date crushing reinforces the operating capacity and competitiveness of Brazil’s soybean-processing industry.
Source: Canal Rural