Six months later: Iran war far from settled and in ‘very dangerous period’
(TNND) — Friday marked six months since the conflict with Iran began.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the war would be over soon, but one Iran expert isn’t surprised by America’s continued involvement.
“I’m much more surprised at how stubborn the administration seems to be with the mistakes and strategic blunders piling on,” said Hussein Banai, an associate professor of international studies at Indiana University.
And Banai expects the U.S. to be dealing with Iran for another six months.
Banai poured cold water on the idea that the U.S. will soon achieve a “grand peace deal” or “well-kept stalemate.” He predicted that American troops would maintain a presence in the region in the months ahead to at least keep Iran in check and provide cover for allies.
And even if the two sides aren’t actively shooting at each other, the tensions could flare up at any moment, he said.
“It’s a very dangerous period,” Banai said of the current state of the conflict. “I don’t want to downplay that somehow because they’ve gotten themselves down to economic sanctions that this war might be winding down.”
The last reported U.S. military strikes against Iran were a month ago, following weeks of bombing when ceasefire talks collapsed.
Now, the Trump administration is turning the economic screws to get concessions from Iran.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Operation Economic Outcast this week, intended as “an economic onslaught against Iran’s financial connections around the globe.”
The U.S. threatened sanctions against not only Iran but also those who do business with Iran.
Trump on Thursday said Iran is in “deep trouble.”
“We don’t want to speak to them. We’re not looking to meet or anything,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, though it was unclear if he was talking about Iran or about other world leaders as the U.S. embarks on its economic pressure campaign against Iran.
Trump said the U.S. has cleared the Strait of Hormuz of Iranian mines and that the U.S. has “control” of the “open” waterway, which is critical to the transport of oil.
“Last night, we took 24 boats through the strait,” Trump said. “We’re taking them through all the time. I say it very openly.”
Meanwhile, Trump claimed Iran has been choked off from maritime traffic by the U.S. blockade.
Banai expressed skepticism that economic pressure will get Iran to break.
“No, I don’t think it will,” he said. “I think resorting to bombing hasn’t worked, so why would a softer measure that Iran has nearly two decades of experience evading work better?”
Banai said the “sequencing is backwards,” as economic sanctions usually precede military attacks. By going the economic route now, Banai said Iran is convinced that the American military campaign has failed.
Banai said the shift could also signal concerns over U.S. weapons stocks, though Trump has downplayed those concerns recently.
Banai said the U.S. is not currently positioned for a full-scale war, pointing to the shortage of missile interceptors and strain on deployed forces such as the sailors aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln.
But the risk of escalation is always looming and could be ignited by Iran or even Israel, America’s partner in the war that began Feb. 28.
The Iranians have been surprisingly resilient, Banai said.
“They’ve absorbed the blows, and they seem to now be dictating terms, which is something I did not foresee,” he said.
Banai said Trump seemingly expected the Iran conflict to unfold much like Venezuela, on a relatively short timeline. But he has probably been surprised at every stage.
The killing of Iran’s then-supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, did not spark a major uprising, Banai said.
Banai said Iran is now being run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a collection of high-ranking officials, with the new supreme leader’s whereabouts or condition still a mystery.
Iran’s 88-member Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader following his father’s death. But Mojtaba Khamenei was by all accounts severely wounded in the same attack that took his father’s life. And he’s remained out of sight from the public since Iran’s clerical body picked him as the new leader.
Banai said U.S. military power also hasn’t produced the leverage over Iran that the administration expected.
Trump has repeatedly said Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon. And Banai said Iran still has its highly enriched uranium and a desire to weaponize.
What’s less clear is whether Trump can keep Iran from eventually building a nuclear weapon.
“His intentions seem to be at odds with the strategies,” Banai said of Trump.
Banai questioned why Trump stopped the Israelis from continuing last year’s 12-day war if eradicating Iran’s nuclear capabilities was the prime goal, only to start a new conflict this winter.
The U.S. helped Israel last year by dropping bunker-buster bombs from B-2 stealth bombers on Iran’s deeply buried Fordo enrichment facility.
Banai said Trump hasn’t been laser-focused in the current conflict on stopping Iran from building a nuclear weapon. He said the president has alternated between claims that Iran’s nuclear program had already been destroyed and regime-change rhetoric, along with a more recent focus on clawing back an economic advantage.