Senegal vs Iraq Prediction: World Cup 2026 Match Preview
Senegal and Iraq are both staring down the barrel of elimination from the 2026 World Cup in a crucial Group I fixture. Look ahead to Friday’s contest with our Senegal vs Iraq prediction and preview.
Senegal vs Iraq: The Key Insights
- Senegal are considered big favourites by the Opta supercomputer for this fixture, with a win probability of 77.2% to Iraq’s 8.6%.
- Senegal have only won one of their three Matchday 3 fixtures in the group stages of the World Cup.
- Iraq have lost each of their first five World Cup matches and could become just the second nation from the AFC confederation to fail to win their opening six games across the competition.
Senegal and Iraq are in the last-chance saloon as they meet in a crucial Group I encounter at Toronto Stadium on Friday.
Pape Thiaw’s Senegal side started their campaign with a 3-1 defeat to France, then followed up with a 3-2 reverse to Norway on Monday.
Erling Haaland was on target twice and, despite a brace of his own from Ismaïla Sarr, Senegal could not rescue the situation.
Although their hopes of finishing in the top two are over, all is not lost as there is still the chance to qualify by being one of the eight best-placed teams to finish third.
But Senegal will need to reverse some concerning trends to reinvigorate a flagging tournament and reach the round of 32.
Having lost both of their opening matches at the World Cup, Senegal have already suffered their joint-most defeats in a single edition of the tournament, having also been defeated twice in Qatar four years ago.
Moreover, after back-to-back defeats, Senegal face the prospect of losing three successive group-stage games for the very first time in the competition.
Their two losses here are already as many as they suffered in their nine previous matches at this stage of the tournament, winning four and drawing three of the others.
Senegal have previously won just one of their three MD3 fixtures in the group stages of the World Cup, drawing one and losing the other. That victory did, though, come in their most recent appearance at the tournament, a 2-1 win over Ecuador in 2022.
Sarr’s brace was not enough to rescue Senegal against Norway, but he now has three goals in nine World Cup games. No Senegal player has ever netted more across their opening 10 appearances in the competition (level with Papa Bouba Diop, who also had three).
Iraq’s situation appears even more dire than Senegal’s given they have a goal difference of minus six after two games, so even an upset win would not guarantee progression.
After losing their opener 4-1 to Norway – a game in which Haaland scored another brace – Iraq were defeated 3-0 by France in Philadelphia on Monday.
Kylian Mbappé scored in each half, before Ousmane Dembélé rounded out the victory in the 66th minute to put the game beyond Graham Arnold’s side.
Before this World Cup, only two nations had lost three group-stage games by three-plus goals (Mexico in 1930 and New Zealand in 1982), and Iraq will be out to avoid joining that list having done so in their first two games.
The Gulf nation have lost each of their first five World Cup matches and could become just the second country from the AFC confederation to fail to win their opening six games across the competition, after South Korea between 1954 and 1998 where they lost their first 14.
Akam Hashim managed 86 touches and completed 68 of his 71 passes in Iraq’s defeat to France. Both of those totals represent the most ever by an Iraq player in a single game at the World Cup.
Senegal vs Iraq Head-to-Head
This final-round fixture in Group I represents the first time that Senegal and Iraq have ever faced off.
Senegal are unbeaten in their two World Cup matches against teams from the AFC confederation, a 2-2 draw against Japan in 2018, and a 3-1 victory over hosts Qatar four years ago.
For Iraq, this game marks their very first meeting against a team from the CAF confederation at a World Cup.
The last three AFC nations suffered defeat in their first game against African teams in the competition (North Korea, Qatar, and Jordan), this after the first five had gone unbeaten (W3, D2).
Senegal vs Iraq Prediction
The magnitude of this fixture will not be lost on either side, but the Opta supercomputer is leaning heavily in favour of Senegal.
The Lions of Teranga’s chances of victory are rated at a whopping 77.2%, in contrast to a mere 8.6% for Iraq, while the draw is considered as a 14.2% shot.
In terms of the competition overall, Senegal can obviously no longer top the group, but given their high probability of victory, Opta’s live ranking still gives them a 72.2% chance of making the last 32. They only have a 0.2% likelihood of winning the tournament, though.
Iraq’s outlook is considerably more bleak. They too cannot top the group, and they only have a 1.1% chance of making the knockout stages.
Senegal vs Iraq Squads
Senegal: Yehvann Diouf, Édouard Mendy, Mory Diaw, Mamadou Sarr, Kalidou Koulibaly, Abdoulaye Seck, Ismail Jakobs, Moussa Niakhaté, Antoine Mendy, El Hadji Malick Diouf, Idrissa Gueye, Pathé Ciss, Lamine Camara, Krépin Diatta, Pape Matar Sarr, Habib Diarra, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye, Pape Gueye, Assane Diao, Bamba Dieng, Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson, Cherif Ndiaye, Iliman Ndiaye, Ismaïla Sarr, Ibrahim Mbaye.
Iraq: Fahad Talib, Jalal Hassan, Ahmed Basil, Rebin Sulaka, Hussein Ali, Zaid Tahseen, Akam Hashim, Munaf Younus, Ahmed Maknzi, Merchas Doski, Mustafa Saadoon, Frans Putros, Ibrahim Bayesh, Zidane Iqbal, Amir Al Ammari, Kevin Yakob, Aimar Sher, Marko Farji, Zaid Ismael, Youssef Amyn, Ali Al Hamadi, Mohanad Ali, Ahmed Qasem, Ali Yousif, Ali Jasim, Aymen Hussein.
Senegal vs Iraq Predicted Lineups
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