Politics: Violence and polarization characterize presidential election in Colombia

Colombia is electing a new president today against a backdrop of growing violence and deep political tensions. Around 41 million citizens are being called upon to elect a successor to left-wing President Gustavo Petro, who is not allowed to stand for re-election under the constitution.

A total of 14 candidates are running, with three clear favorites according to current polls. They include the left-wing senator Iván Cepeda from the government camp, who wants to continue Petro’s reform course, and the conservative senator Paloma Valencia from the circle of former President Álvaro Uribe, who is calling for a tough security policy.

The right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella, who is campaigning for a leaner state and uncompromising action against armed groups, is also considered to have a good chance.

“One of the worst waves of violence in recent years”

The election campaign has recently been increasingly overshadowed by the difficult security situation. Colombia is currently experiencing “one of the worst waves of violence in recent years”, said Kristin Wesemann, head of the Colombia office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS).

In the run-up to the vote, there were a number of attacks in which several civilians, soldiers and police officers were killed or injured. However, political violence has been plaguing the country for some time now: In June last year, for example, the conservative senator Miguel Uribe Turbay was shot at an election campaign event in the capital Bogotá and later succumbed to his injuries.

According to the KAS expert, armed groups have continued to spread in many regions. “67 percent of all communities […] are exposed to illegal networks and groups,” said Wesemann. At the same time, “the state security structures are extremely weakened”.

According to a report by the International Committee of the Red Cross, Colombia experienced the worst humanitarian consequences of armed conflict in a decade last year. According to the report, more than 235,000 people were displaced.

Petro wanted “total peace” with armed groups

The security situation thus also takes center stage in Petro’s balance sheet. The first left-wing president in Colombia’s history took office in 2022 with the promise of “total peace” and wanted to curb decades of violence through negotiations with armed groups. However, a decisive breakthrough has yet to be achieved.

Supporters of the government, on the other hand, point to social progress. According to an analysis by the independent US think tank Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), social spending has increased significantly under Petro, the minimum wage has been raised and the poverty rate has fallen noticeably since 2022. Unemployment has also fallen recently.

However, several reform projects failed in Congress or were delayed. In addition, numerous changes of minister and public conflicts within the government repeatedly led to criticism. Petro has also frequently taken a confrontational stance on foreign policy. His relationship with US President Donald Trump is considered tense due to disputes over migration, deportations and drug policy, among other things.

If none of the candidates achieve an absolute majority, there will be a run-off election on June 21, which polls currently predict.