Zimbabwe’s succession battle complicates growth push

A succession battle is simmering within the ruling party in Zimbabwe, resulting in further uncertainty for businesses in an already fragile economy.

President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s allies want to amend the constitution to extend his term by at least two years, while a rival faction is backing Vice President Constantino Chiwenga to take over. 

Business in Harare came to a grinding halt on 31 March after Blessed Geza, a former ZANU-PF central committee member, called for nationwide mass protests against Mnangagwa.

The call by Geza, a Chiwenga ally, shut down Zimbabwe’s capital Harare, with businesses closed and streets deserted (pictured).

Hundreds of people took to the streets and barricaded roads while singing songs against the 2030 Agenda, a movement plotting to extend Mnangagwa’s term by at least two years. Over 100 were arrested and charged with participating in unsanctioned demonstrations. 

Zimbabwe has not had any mass protests since 2019, when the military was deployed to quell demonstrators who took to the streets in the wake of 150% fuel price hikes.

Mnangagwa, who last won re-election in August 2023, is currently serving his second and final term, which is due to end in 2028. The president has denied that he wishes to remove term limits several times.

A former commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, Chiwenga played a key role in a military coup that toppled longtime ruler Robert Mugabe in November 2017, which propelled Mnangagwa to power. 

Chiwenga supporter Geza appeared in the media last month, accusing Mnangagwa of corruption and economic mismanagement. 

On Wednesday last week, Geza said he was pushing to impeach Mnangagwa based on ill health, which is highly unlikely given that the president controls Parliament.

A fragile recovery

The political instability could knock Zimbabwe’s always fragile business confidence.

The World Bank anticipates 6% economic growth in 2025, driven by recovery from last year’s El Niño droughts, increased investments in mining and tourism, and improved fiscal stability.

Finance minister Mthuli Ncube has expressed confidence that the country will achieve the growth projections, and cites efforts in agriculture, mineral beneficiation – particularly platinum group metals (PGMs) and lithium – as well as tight control of government finances.

In recent months, the government made a significant step towards securing future financial support from international lenders when it agreed to compensate foreign farmers covered by bilateral investment treaties whose farms were seized in the controversial and violent land reform programme of the early 2000s.

The country is reportedly looking for sponsors to help clear some $21bn in historical debt arrears, which would help to unlock fresh financial support.

But ordinary Zimbabweans continue to grapple with food insecurity, dilapidated infrastructure, and average consumer price inflation that the IMF projects will hit 23.6% this year. Zimbabwe replaced its ailing local currency in April last year with another currency dubbed Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG), backed by $550m in gold and foreign reserves. But the central bank devalued the new currency by 43% in September 2024.

Denford Mutashu, president of the Confederation of Zimbabwe Retailers (CZR), says the government’s projection of 6% economic growth in 2025, anchored on recovery in agriculture and mining, is cautiously optimistic, but adds that structural challenges threaten to undermine these ambitions.

“Electricity shortages and high production costs persist, as evidenced by the closure of some businesses,” he says.

Choppies, a regional supermarket chain, exited Zimbabwe in January, citing a harsh economic environment dominated by informal businesses and a volatile currency. A once-prosperous clothing retailer, Truworths, was sold for a nominal fee after entering a corporate rescue process, while another supermarket, OK, has closed several branches across the country and is struggling to restock.

Farai Mutambanengwe, chief executive officer at the Small-to-Medium Enterprises Association of Zimbabwe, says economic growth projections by the government are not in sync with reality.

“It has become increasingly difficult to assess or agree with the gross domestic product (GDP) estimates that are pronounced by the Ministry of Finance, as they are tending to be divergent with the lived reality and experience on the ground.”

“We have now had several years where GDP numbers indicate growth, yet we are faced with a collapsing formal sector, increasing informalisation and falling domestic demand,” Mutambanengwe says.

Could metals be the silver bullet?

Against this difficult backdrop, Ncube has pointed to the possibility of developing a lucrative metals industry based on the country’s lithium and PGM resources.

Mutashu agrees that over-reliance on raw mineral exports without value addition has left the economy vulnerable to commodity price volatility. Last year, major falls in platinum prices forced companies to retrench workers and close some mines.

“Mining sector growth should prioritise local beneficiation to retain value and jobs domestically,” he says.

The government moved to ban exports of unprocessed raw lithium in 2022, although illegal smuggling persists.

Some lithium companies, including Chinese-owned  Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, Sinomine Resource Group and Chengxin Lithium Group, have invested in constructing lithium processing plants.

Yet the country’s intermittent power supply is another challenge that must be overcome if a local metals industry is to become a serious contributor to growth. In 2023, China’s ambassador to Zimbabwe, Zhou Ding, said that power shortages and high energy prices are a major block to the manufacture of battery-grade lithium.

Fundamental change required

With so many challenges facing the economy, the uncertainty over the political succession is unlikely to be welcomed by investors. Yet without further impetus towards political reform, the country is also unlikely to see major progress on remedying its longstanding difficulties.

Lyle Begbie, an economist at Oxford Economics Africa, says that Zimbabwe faces several institutional challenges that hinder the widespread distribution of economic benefits. 

“Without fundamental political changes, sustained economic growth outside of the extractive sector remains unlikely,” he says.