United States: a threatened giant

There are stories that can be explained perfectly through the data. The absolute tyranny imposed by the United States women’s basketball team is a perfect case. The numbers alone are overwhelming: eight consecutive Olympic golds, four consecutive World Cups as well, almost 20 years without losing a game (the anniversary is on September 21), with a 73-0 record and finishing a World Cup with an average of 40 points ahead of their rivals. No other team sport at the international level, men’s or women’s, has shown such dominance by one country.

The women’s team truly is a Dream Team extended over time. Each team was almost better than the previous one, forming an extraordinary precision machine for playing basketball that hammered the opponent again and again. Fleeting and deadly attacks, unquestionable physicality, a frantic pace and players of enormous quality. An unbroken hegemony… until now.

USA received its first serious warning in the final of the last Games in Paris 2024. An agonizing and, for many, unfair 67-66 victory over France, in a game that the French women knew how to take onto their turf, pulling the giant out of its habitat. They almost won and would have ended 18 years of total dominance.

The Americans escaped that time and also against Italy a few days ago in the 2026 World Cup. Second warning, and this one more serious. France, back then, was another of the favorites at its Games, but Italy was not among the expected medal contenders. The Italians came close, once again bogging the game down, taking the Americans onto the kind of court where they feel most uncomfortable, when they have to extend possessions, which is when the tactical discipline they do not usually have works best. The Europeans were leading with three minutes to go, 51-50, and lost 52-55 in another low-scoring game, with one or two controversial decisions and a three-point attempt at the buzzer by Zandalasini to tie.

These are undeniable signs of weakness, of a fragility they had never shown before. It is a new scenario for players who, for the most part, are still savoring their first sips of international experience. It is a fabulous team when rowing with the wind at its back, it has won many of its games very comfortably in Berlin, but with many doubts and cracks if the wind turns against it. As happened against Italy.

‘When the team that would play in the World Cup was made public, experts focused more on the absences: Sabrina Ionescu, Kelsey Plum and, above all, A”ja Wilson. They are tremendous absences, especially Wilson’s, the best player on the planet today, the player who, in case of trouble, is always there to take out the trash. That indispensable figure is not on this “Dream Team”.‘

On the contrary, on the team that is in Berlin many questions have arisen about the performance of some players, especially in close games. Jackie Young is their top scorer, averaging 11, with Napheesa Collier, 9.8, and Breanna Stewart behind her on 9.5. The quality of Caitlin Clark is unquestionable, as is that of Paige Bueckers, but there are many doubts about other players such as Angel Reese, who for many would not have a place if everyone had come, or Chelsea Gray, one of the veterans, but far from her prime.

“But the weakness of the USA is not so much in its play, which remains physical and at times devastating for its rival, as in its chemistry. The team does not seem united, they do not get along well, it is not an environment capable of pushing back against bad moments; on the contrary, they seem to have imported some of the problems hanging over the WNBA itself. If there are problems, they absorb them and create more problems; they do not repel or solve them. And that disorder is noticeable on the court.

The American team has also shown that it still struggles to adapt to FIBA tournaments. All the teams had their training plan according to the schedules assigned to them, and they followed it. The USA did not like the schedule on a couple of occasions, they gave it up and found themselves an alternative training court. They have repeated it for these semifinals and, on the previous day, they do not train at the Uber Arena. These are the whims of the giant.

Let no one doubt that the USA is still an extraordinary team. It is the favorite against Spain and if it reaches the final, it will be as well. But we must bear in mind that the gaps, which years ago were enormous, have been narrowing, just as is happening in the men’s game. After the Berlin World Cup, the hegemony may continue (or not) but what will remain is that teams like France or Spain are starting to get much closer to the giant. It remains to be seen whether close enough to bring it down.