Strategic Pathways for Tigray’s Political Transition

Actions:

1. Intra- and Inter-Factional Dialogue Platforms:
   • Tigray’s political future requires the cooperation of various factions, including TPLF-D, TPLF-G, opposition groups, and the military. To achieve lasting peace, these groups must engage in direct, structured dialogues. The leadership should facilitate formal negotiations between these factions to create a power-sharing framework. These dialogues can take the form of a National Reconciliation Summit that ensures that all political groups have a say in shaping the political and institutional landscape of Tigray.
   • These forums should address contentious issues such as governance models, security sector reform, and resource distribution. The process can be modelled after similar successful dialogues in post-conflict settings (e.g., the peace talks in South Africa or Northern Ireland), where multi-party negotiations led to a long-term peace agreement.
2. Citizens’ Assemblies for Local-Level Participation:
   • To bridge the divide between elites and ordinary citizens, citizens’ assemblies should be set up at the local level. These assemblies would consist of ordinary people from various regions of Tigray who can voice concerns and propose solutions related to governance, economic policies, and social issues.
   • These assemblies should be organized in a way that reflects the diversity of Tigray’s population, such as including ethnic minorities, youth groups, and women. The goal is to build trust, increase the legitimacy of the leadership, and ensure that the political process is inclusive.

II. The Role of Media: Promoting Unity through Informed Discourse

The media is a powerful tool in shaping the narrative of Tigray’s transition. However, for the media to serve as a constructive force, it must transcend factional interests and political biases.

Actions:

1. Establishment of an Independent Media Regulatory Body:
   • The leadership should prioritize the creation of an independent Media Regulatory Commission. This body would be responsible for overseeing media activities and ensuring that news outlets adhere to ethical standards, such as impartiality, fairness, and accuracy. This commission should be composed of media professionals, civil society representatives, and legal experts, ensuring a balance of viewpoints.
   • The regulatory body’s role would include monitoring the political neutrality of media outlets, providing training to journalists on responsible reporting, and implementing measures to prevent the spread of hate speech and divisive rhetoric.
2. Government Transparency and Media Partnerships:
   • The government must commit to transparent communication by regularly updating the public on the political transition process. A robust government communication strategy should be developed to ensure that citizens are informed of developments related to the Pretoria Agreement, the status of IDPs, and the implementation of reforms.
   • Media outlets should collaborate with the government to produce fact-based, non-political content that fosters unity. Public-private partnerships could be used to fund independent investigative journalism, ensuring that media can operate without external pressures.
3. Training for Journalists in Conflict Sensitivity:
   • Training programs should be designed for journalists in Tigray to help them understand the socio-political context of the region. These programs would focus on conflict-sensitive reporting, enabling journalists to navigate sensitive topics like ethnic relations, historical grievances, and the impact of military occupation without inflaming tensions.

Abiy and Isaias Fight Over Tigray – Ethiopia Insight

A struggle is underway to control Tigray’s military forces

III. Restructuring the Cabinet and Fostering Power-Sharing

One of the most difficult aspects of Tigray’s transition will be ensuring that power is shared equitably among various factions. This requires a clear framework for power-sharing that goes beyond theoretical suggestions and addresses the deep-rooted tensions between TPLF-D, TPLF-G, opposition groups, and the military.

Actions:

1. Establishing a Formal Power-Sharing Agreement:
   • A formal power-sharing agreement should be negotiated, ensuring that all major political factions have representation in key governance institutions. This agreement must cover not only the cabinet but also local councils, regional security forces, and other important sectors such as finance, health and education.
   • The agreement should specify the proportion of key positions each faction is entitled to base on their support base and the outcomes of peace negotiations. It should also outline the distribution of resources to avoid monopolization by any single group.
2. Mechanisms for Conflict Resolution within the Cabinet:
   • A mediation and conflict resolution framework must be put in place to deal with internal disputes within the cabinet. This could involve the establishment of a neutral, third-party Council of Elders or international mediators who can arbitrate conflicts that arise between factions and help maintain a balance of power.
3. Gradual Demilitarization of Governance:
   • The involvement of the military in governance should be reduced gradually. Military leaders should be given clear roles in defence and security but not in the central governance structures. Over time, military integration into civilian roles must be achieved through a process of professionalization and civilian oversight.

IV. Implementing the Pretoria Agreement: Prioritizing Key Challenges

The Pretoria Agreement offers a blueprint for peace, but key provisions have yet to be fully implemented. The leadership must prioritize the immediate, phased implementation of this agreement, with a focus on restoring peace, addressing IDPs, and ensuring security.

Actions:

1. Phased Withdrawal of Security Forces:
   • International oversight should be arranged to monitor the withdrawal of non-local security forces. The international community, including the African Union (AU) and the United Nations, should be tasked with ensuring compliance with the withdrawal provisions.
   • Establish buffer zones where no military forces are allowed, allowing for a safe environment for civilians to return to their homes.
2. Return of Occupied Territories:
   • Prioritize direct negotiations with the Ethiopian federal government to ensure the peaceful return of occupied territories. These negotiations should be facilitated by a neutral international mediator (AUC) to avoid tensions.
   • Compensation mechanisms for those affected by territorial occupation must be set up, including land restitution programs for displaced individuals and communities.
3. IDP Resettlement and Livelihood Support:
   • The resettlement of internally displaced persons (IDPs) should involve multi-sectoral coordination, including housing, healthcare, and education. The government should collaborate with humanitarian organizations and local NGOs to ensure the comprehensive reintegration of displaced populations into their communities.
   • A livelihood support package should be developed to help IDPs rebuild their lives, focusing on job creation, vocational training, and microfinance options.

Breaking Ethiopia’s Vicious Cycle – Ethiopia Insight

We need to develop a new political culture

V. Strengthening Diplomatic Ties: A Pragmatic Approach

Tigray’s diplomatic strategy is critical to its long-term recovery and reintegration into the broader international community. The region must prioritize realistic diplomatic initiatives that involve all relevant actors.

Actions:

1. Strategic Diplomacy with Ethiopia and Eritrea:
   • Initiate direct diplomatic talks with both the Ethiopian federal government and Eritrea (via international mediators), focusing on border demarcation, economic cooperation, and regional security arrangements. The goal should be to create a regional security framework that includes Tigray, Ethiopia, and Eritrea.
   • Economic cooperation agreements should be explored to boost trade, infrastructure development, and cross-border initiatives, laying the groundwork for regional integration.
2. Engagement with International Partners for Reconstruction:
   • Mobilize support from international organizations, such as the World Bank and the African Development Bank, for Tigray’s post-conflict reconstruction. Establish bilateral agreements with countries sympathetic to Tigray’s recovery to secure financial aid and technical expertise.
   • Target diaspora communities to invest in Tigray’s reconstruction, leveraging their networks and resources to support sustainable development projects.

VI. Issues Requiring Caution: Strategic Deliberations

There are several areas where careful decision-making is required to prevent further instability. The leadership must proceed cautiously, considering the potential consequences of each action.

Actions:

1. Evaluating the Role of the Interim Administration Council:
   • The leadership must carefully assess whether the Interim Administration Council should be retained or dissolved, considering its ability to facilitate the transition. If it remains, its mandate should be clearly defined and gradually transferred to newly elected officials to ensure legitimacy.
2. Reform of EFFORT and Managing Resources:
   • A comprehensive reform of EFFORT should ensure its continued operational effectiveness, particularly in supporting Tigray’s rehabilitation. The leadership should establish independent oversight to guarantee that resources are used efficiently and transparently.

Conclusion

Tigray’s political transition requires not just theoretical frameworks but concrete, actionable steps that address the region’s specific challenges. By prioritizing practical solutions, such as power-sharing, media reforms, and the phased implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, the leadership can navigate the complexities of the transition successfully. A focused and pragmatic approach, coupled with strategic diplomacy and institutional strengthening, will enable Tigray to emerge as a stable, prosperous, and democratic region.

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Main photo: From left to right: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Lt. Gen. Tadesse Werede, and Getachew Reda, Office of Prime Minister, 8 April 2025.

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