SA envoy expelled by Trump says critical minerals could fix US ties

For a man who sports ‘the badge of honour’ of being the first and hitherto only senior diplomat to be expelled by US President Donald Trump’s administration, former ambassador Ebrahim Rasool cuts a dapper and defiant figure while defending his right to analyse his former host country and preparing his own country for radically new terms of engagement.

On his return to South Africa accompanied with his spouse, Rosieda, he came straight to the point: “After months of relentless attacks that South Africa has had to endure, it is good to feel the dignity of being African.”

If you have an image of a diplomat cowering at the mercy of the new Trump doctrine and bending the knee (as so many have been doing), you have another thing coming.

Instead, the 62-year-old ambassador who loves rugby and walking because he says he can concentrate better while doing so, has doubled down on his earlier dispatches and the discourse which led to him being declared persona non grata by US secretary of state Marco Rubio.

‘US strategy has not worked out’

Discussing the current relationship between Pretoria and Washington DC, he says: “I think there is repair work going on, which has a lot to do with the fact that the US strategy of overwhelming the world has not worked out as planned.

“For every executive order they have issued they have had to do away with many of them. For every tariff they pronounced, they had to claw back. The stand-off with China is hurting the US terribly and so is the blowback of the stock market collapse when $10 trillion was wiped off global stocks in the two days after the tariff announcement. US farmers who supported Trump by and large have complained that they are at the wrong end of the tariff war, and the heads of US retailers such as Walmart have stressed they were suffering even more.”

The overwhelmingly hostile reception by the business world to the tariff policy, says Rasool, has led to a surprising degree of flexibility by the Trump administration over the past couple of months. President Trump, he says, has had to reconsider quite a lot.

“I am absolutely delighted that greater realism resulted in a phone call which we had been preparing for between Presidents Trump and Cyril Ramaphosa, ostensibly to align on the Ukrainian approach.

“Given that Ramaphosa met President Volodymyr Zelensky on April 24 (when the Ukrainian leader visited South Africa), the possibility of opening some trade negotiations between South Africa and the US has increased. This is more to do with realism setting in in the US than a softening of attitude.”

However, South Africa, he affirms, is not softening is stance on its case against the actions of US ally Israel over its war in Gaza at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In December 2023, South Africa filed a case at the ICJ alleging that Israel is engaging in “genocidal acts” in Gaza, and has been unapologetically pro-Palestinian.

The US also seems to have dialled down its former barrage of untruths about the situation of white Afrikaners in South Africa, having offered them asylum in the US over baseless claims that they are racially discriminated against.

Critical minerals could drive rapprochement

The US’s more realistic and pragmatic approach, Rasool says, is based on acknowledging that it needs various critical minerals, such as the platinum metals groups, for its industries, especially in the auto manufacturing sector.

“The realities of the last few weeks have made the relationship much more palatable,” stressed Rasool.  

But how genuine is this change of attitude?

“I don’t think the agenda has fundamentally changed. The agenda is certainly still that he (Trump) has the new robber barons if I can use that word, the tech robber barons (referring to the tech giants who have lined up to support Trump).

“Every economic epoch has its set of robber barons. The Industrial Revolution needed oil which gave rise to the Carnegies and the JP Morgans. Today it’s the tech pros – they know that their strong drive is (stymied) because the US has fallen behind in the scramble for critical minerals,” Rasool argues.

“You must always look for the ‘method in the madness.’ You can be entertained by the madness. But the method is the scramble for critical minerals and rare earth elements. Africa has 30% of world reserves. South Africa had great skin in the game when we lost 18 soldiers in defence of the DRC’s critical minerals. The DRC has now allowed the US to be directly involved rather than have critical minerals filtered out from the eastern DRC largely via Rwanda.

“The ‘madness’ about Greenland also has a method.” Rasool argues. “With the ice cap melting and the possibility of critical minerals becoming available in the Arctic, it makes Greenland very important.”

Need for African unity

Does Africa have a unity of purpose when it comes to evolving relations with the Trump administration? The African Union (AU) has hitherto had no coherent response to Trump’s tariffs. Currently, all of Africa is suffering from the 10% universal tariffs imposed by the administration, but some countries could be hit with much higher rates at the end of a three-month pause. South Africa, for example, was due to be hit with a 30% tariff.  

Rasool believes South Africa has been targeted to prevent it becoming a central organising force in the AU.

“With South Africa on the back foot, you can go in and make a side deal with the DRC. You can go and make Rwanda your proxy and try to get direct access to the minerals yourself,” argues Rasool.

“The aim is to break long standing multilateral agreements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) programme, which currently includes 32 sub-Saharan African countries and is due for renewal in September 2025, by forcing everyone to negotiate individually around every product.”

Critique of Trump’s racial policies

Rasool also thinks that there are ideological drivers behind the Trump doctrine. This was the central point he made during his talk that riled the US administration to such an extent that they asked for his removal. Rasool had accused the Trump government of “mobilising a supremacism” and trying to “project white victimhood as a dog whistle”.

“You do have a very active export of that instinct,” he tells us. “It allowed the wanton interference in the internal politics of other countries. If you look at (Trump’s) courting of Nigel Farage and the Reform party in the UK…When you have vice-president JD Vance going to the Munich Security Forum and advancing the cause of the far right German AFD a week ahead of an election, you begin to get a sense that there is this instinct at play.”

To push this ideological stance requires white ‘victims’ argues Rasool.

“You need to show white victimhood. That is where the white Afrikaners come in. By and large I do think there is an ideological agenda. This is fed by the changing demographics in the US, a declining white vote, and the possibility of ‘a majority of minorities’ – as well as the idea of casting a global process to dominate critical minerals in civilisational terms.”

It is also part of a global crusade, Rasool says, against multilateralism. South Africa, Rasool says, finds itself aligned to several multilateral initiatives – the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), BRICS, and the AU. This year it became the first African country to hold the presidency of the G20 and will host the 2025 G20 Summit in November this year – secretary of state Marco Rubio has already boycotted a G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Johannesburg.  

Trump, Rasool maintains, understands that the world is becoming increasingly multipolar but cannot tolerate a world that is increasingly multilateral and in which the US has to contend with competing centres of power. If this trend takes root, Trump fears what it might do to the US bond market and the value of the dollar.

 “Imagine de-dollarisation becoming a reality. Imagine there are ways in which the AU tells the US: If you want any of our critical minerals, buy them from China which will process them first.”

AGOA at risk

This, says Rasool, is likely to impact the future of US-Africa trade, in particular AGOA.

“My sense is that AGOA is being dismantled. Automotives were exported from South Africa to the US under AGOA. They have taken cars out (of AGOA)  and slapped tariffs on them.

“The same thing with aluminium and steel. They are going to dismantle AGOA product by product until it becomes meaningless and then they are going to negotiate exemptions product by product.”

“You see the full horror of the dismantling of AGOA” he says “and then the exceptions for the platinum group of minerals, on manganese, and other critical minerals such as cobalt, rhodium etc: that’s the kind of scenario that sometimes presents itself as a trade war and sometimes as a civilisational ideological war.”

Rasool says that the uncertainty around AGOA’s future is sure to impact trade.

“If you don’t have a sense of the direction of AGOA, how do farmers know whether to plant more orange trees? How do manufacturers know what more to order in their supply chains, how do stores in the US know they must place orders with South African and African farmers? The uncertainty together with the exemptions are having an effect on AGOA itself.

“I would not be surprised if apart from the critical minerals, they say we love orange juice too much. Let us look at which agricultural products you can supply. If they discover that South Africa exports nuclear isotopes to the US that fight cancer there, they might include this. There will be a product-by-product assessment. By the time we come to September, the US will know what is on their shopping list and what is not.”

The new age of impunity

Does this all point to a major shift in the global order? China, Rasool says. knows what cards it has and how to play them.

“China is not big on speeches and rhetoric. It’s not going to be stupid by starting to sell off its US bond holdings, but it has started to withhold some of those critical minerals – you can see Trump is panicking and Xi Jinping is as cool as a cucumber.

“China is showing the world a way to deal with the US that isn’t panic-stricken and losing one’s cool. At the same time China is beginning to build alliances, ostensibly around trade. If the US gets pernicious, these alliances could lead to a critical mass of back-stiffening.”

What about a return to a multilateral rules-based framework through which everybody benefits?

“In the post-modern way of thinking, everything is relative,” muses Rasool. “Those wanting the usual rules of diplomacy, of trade, of international geopolitics, are like the outdated orthodoxies of the past. If you are not going to get into this post-modern system you are going to be left behind.

“(Look at ) what China and Russia are showing with impunity and absence of rules. ‘I am now going to retrospectively apply my keeping Crimea, my keeping 30% of Ukraine (Russia says.)’

“China is harbouring ambitions over Taiwan and saying: ‘Ok this is the lovely part of no rules and impunity, let me see what I can do around Taiwan.’

“There is a fear not so much of relaxing the rules by the US, but of relaxing the rules of engagement which will have a consequential reaction. In the short-term, trying to play by the rules is like trying to play with a superpower with both your hands tied behind your back.” 

Africa’s role in the new world order

In this new reality, is Africa strong enough to renegotiate on its own terms?

“When I went to the US,” says Rasool, “I went with enough optimism that Donald Trump’s institutional iconoclasm, his willingness to destroy outmoded idols would maybe lead to four years of leadership of the G20 which could result in the reform of the UN and the Bretton Woods systems. Maybe this healthy disrespect for NATO could be a shake-up, also that the World Trade Organisation (WTO) could shift things in favour of Africa.

“I think in his direction of travel he has moved the US from hegemony to domination, from soft persuasive power to hard power. The only thing that can salvage anything is blowback, whether from the stock markets, farmers in the US, China, or if the multilateral system accelerates.

“You may end up with at least a bilateral world with two poles. Then with things like de-dollarisation, you’ve got to protect yourself against that pernicious power. If you are financially integrated, they can punish you by sanctioning you. When they threaten, for example, ANC leaders with sanctions, then we are sitting ducks because our system is completely dollarised, our financial architecture is fully integrated with the US one. Then you begin to see the danger signs. To then negotiate diversified markets and partnerships, you have to do it on the back foot.”

The only currency that remotely comes near to challenging the dominance of the US dollar is the Chinese yuan, which is much weaker in its reach and lacks the backing of a truly global currency and payments architecture. Nevertheless, is de-dollarisation inevitable in the medium-to-long-term future?

“The very point you make about the weakness of the yuan versus the US dollar is precisely the reason that the last BRICS summit held in South Africa did not entertain the notion of de-dollarisation. That did not stop Donald Trump saying that those thinking of de-dollarisation should prepare for 100% tariffs. It may not be a wise decision, but perhaps it is time to make a start in that direction. I agree we are not ready for de-dollarisation, but we cannot keep our eggs in the one US basket forever.”

How else can Africa diversify?

“We increase intra-African trade as a precondition for intercontinental trade – 16% is better than the 10% it was less than a decade ago. Imagine if Africa-China trade is paid for in local currencies. I think you got to signal something experimental. We also must build up African reserve currencies and BRICS reserve currencies in our respective nations.”

He agrees that implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is too slow. “Absolutely, we did not see this oncoming train called Donald Trump. We did not see the importance of solidarity investment. There was still a colonial mind-set based on an understanding of a conscious underdevelopment of Africa. What we must have now is a conscious solidarity of investment in Africa.”

US must stay engaged

But Rasool says that whatever happens, it will still be in the interests of the US to engage with South Africa and the continent at large – not least because an unstable Africa will lead to hugely increased global migration flows. Even after his expulsion from the country, he still makes the case for cordial and productive ties.

“You must choose, as previous administrations have, in keeping enough resources going into Africa or inviting the next wave of migration from Africa – instability straight to Western capitals. The danger of the supremacist ideology is that it upends the kind of unspoken rules of mutuality in the world,” he concludes.