Portugal vs. DR Congo prediction, pick for Wednesday 6/17/26

The 2026 World Cup will be the beginning of one era and the end of another. The tournament has expanded to 48 teams for the first time, which should allow for more dark horse runs and for more teams to experience the spectacle. However, it’ll almost certainly be the final run for two of the game’s legends, Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi.

Ronaldo’s Portugal will begin his final World Cup with a 1 p.m. ET match on Wednesday against DR Congo in Houston. The Leopards haven’t played in the tournament since 1974, when they were known as Zaire.

The Seleçao das Quinas are -340 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and DR Congo is +1100. There are +475 odds that the teams will draw.

Below, I’ll break down this Group K showdown and provide my favorite bet.

Portugal vs. DR Congo Best Bet:

• Correct Score (Bands): 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 (+135): DR Congo is a strong defensive team, with veteran Aaron Wan-Bissaka and youngsters Noah Sadiki, and it should be able to keep it close. However, the Leopards had the worst attack among any African team to qualify, and the Seleçao das Quinas don’t make the sorts of mistakes that would allow them to pounce. A low-scoring win to zero sounds about right.

Portugal vs. DR Congo prediction, pick

Portugal’s qualifying campaign was a mixed bag, as it dropped points twice, losing 2-0 to Ireland and drawing with Hungary. Still, one win each against Ireland and Hungary and a pair of demolitions of Armenia were enough for the Seleçao das Quinas to qualify for their seventh consecutive World Cup. They’ve picked up mostly narrow results in friendlies, picking up 2-1 wins over Nigeria and Chile in their two most recent matches. By comparison, the Leopards had an extremely difficult road. They had to play 10 matches in the group stage of African qualifying, out-last Nigeria on penalties to win the continent’s spot in the interconfederation playoffs, and beat Jamaica in that tournament just to secure their position in this group. Nine wins, a draw, and two losses later, DR Congo is here for the first time in two generations. It also lost in the AFCON Round of 16 in the winter, drawing with eventual winners Senegal in the process.

Portugal has been a consistent contender throughout Ronaldo’s career because of his presence, but this might be the most talented generation that the Iberian nation has ever had. Ronaldo still leads the way in the front line, as he scored five goals in five matches during qualifying, but Paris Saint-Germain backup Gonçalo Ramos, Ronaldo’s club teammate João Félix, and Sporting star Francisco Trincão make for some pretty good depth. The midfield is where the Seleçao das Quinas truly shine: Bruno Fernandes, fresh off of breaking the Premier League single-season assists record, pairs nicely with the PSG duo of Vitinha and João Neves, and together, they set the table for Portugal to score the fourth-most goals and attempt the third-most shots on target per 90 minutes in qualifying. The Seleçao das Quinas aren’t slacking defensively, either; left-back Nuno Mendes is widely considered the best in the world, and Rúben Dias and João Cancelo provide plenty of high-level experience at their respective positions. Goalie Diogo Costa led Liga Portugal in save percentage this season as Porto won the title. All in all, Portugal allowed just seven goals in qualifying, limiting opponents to the 14th-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes. The Seleçao das Quinas were also extremely disciplined, getting whistled for 16 fewer fouls than any other team.

Still, the Leopards absolutely have the talent to steal at least a point. Their team is led by their deep diasporic network in France, and a majority of the roster plays in one of Europe’s top 10 leagues. Real Betis forward Cédric Bukambu, who has multiple 10-plus-goal seasons in La Liga on his resume, led the line during qualifying, and Newcastle United’s Yoane Wissa had 19 Premier League goals in 2024-25 before suffering through a disappointing 2025-26 campaign. Still, even with Wissa and Bukambu leading the way, DR Congo had the weakest attack of any African nation to qualify, scoring just 1.38 goals per 90 minutes. The Leopards made up for that defensively, as they allowed the seventh-fewest goals per 90 minutes in qualifying and the fewest goals on the ninth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes throughout AFCON. Defensive midfielder Noah Sadiki started 33 matches for Sunderland, and defenders Axel Tuanzebe and Aaron Wan-Bissaka both have plenty of Premier League experience. Captain Chancel Mbemba, one of six Congolese-born players in the squad, scored five goals for a Marseille side that finished third in Ligue 1 just three seasons ago as a weekly starter at center-back. I’m not sure if I trust goalie Lionel Mpasi, who doesn’t start in Ligue 1, but DR Congo’s defense and disciplined play should allow it to keep the game close.

Portugal is simply more talented, and its midfield should especially challenge the Leopards, who aren’t deep in that department beyond Sadiki. Vitinha, Fernandes, and Neves both have enough attacking juice to get one past Mpasi if Ronaldo can’t, and Mendes and Cancelo are plenty comfortable moving forward against a team that might sit back for much of the game. The Leopards weren’t great at stepping into passing lanes during AFCON, and the Seleçao das Quinas play cleanly, so I’d be surprised if DR Congo can strike on the counter and even more surprised if it can score with Portugal’s defense set. A 2-0 win for Portugal, with goals from Ronaldo and Fernandes, sounds about right.

Best Bet: Correct Score (Bands): 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 (+135)

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