Portugal vs Congo Prediction, Odds & Match Preview
- Portugal is predicted to be a 1.5-goal favorite against Congo.
- Portugal has won three straight and four of its previous five matches.
- My Portugal vs Congo prediction is the Congo Spread (+1.5, -110).
Portugal begins Group K play as lofty favorites against the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Roberto Martinez leads Portugal into the opener with strong form. The European outfit has won three straight matches and is unbeaten over its last five (W4-D1).
Congo qualified for its first World Cup since 1974, but struggled in pre-tournament friendlies. The African nation drew 0-0 against Denmark and lost 2-1 against Chile.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Portugal vs Congo prediction.
Portugal vs Congo: World Cup Odds
Congo vs Portugal Prediction
Based on Portugal’s inability to cover the spread against inferior sides in qualifying, my Portugal vs Congo prediction is the Congo Spread (+1.5, -110).
Portugal (-1.5) @ -130
DR Congo (1.5) @ -110
Read More: Soccer Spread Betting Explained
Confidence in this prediction is relatively low – it’s less confidence in Congo and more so a question about Portugal.
In qualifying, we saw Portugal struggle to win by multiple goals against inferior teams. The UEFA side played four matches against Ireland and Hungary, failing to cover in all four.
Most of that stems from a questionable defensive record. Across all four matches, Portugal surrendered 1.49 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes.
Congo falls somewhere in the middle of those two teams. By ELO ratings, Congo ranks 55th while Hungary and Ireland sit 44th and 64th, respectively.
Here’s the concern: we’ve yet to see Congo play a truly elite side in competition. Over the last year, their hardest match came at the African Cup of Nations against Senegal (21st in ELO).
Congo performed well in that match as a +650 underdog. Manager Sebastien Desabre, without Yoanne Wissa, led his side to a 1-1 draw. Post-shot xG finished 1.53-1.5 for Senegal.
It leaves me slightly encouraged about Congo’s ATS viability in this fixture. Plus, the CAF side owns a travel advantage over Portugal for the match.
Congo will train in Houston, the site of this match. For Portugal, the match requires a trip from their Palm Beach Gardens training base.
Whether that proves meaningful is unknown. That said, it would be Congo to cover or nothing for Wednesday’s fixture.
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