Policy shifts, climate risk assessments as strategies to tame flooding

The phrase ‘Sorrow may last for a night, but joy comes in the morning’ is a common proverb and a line from Psalm 30:5 in the Bible. However, days after floods devastated several communities in the Mokwa Council of Niger State, joy has still not come for the over 416,600 (2022) estimated population of the town, which lies in an area of 4,338 km2.

Everywhere is quiet — but not the kind of quiet that brings comfort. Pains and agony can still be felt in the land, as residents are still picking the pieces.

A visit to the affected communities revealed frustration and disappointment in the faces of residents, as they lament their plight, especially over the lack of adequate food supplies and poor camp conditions. Beyond food shortages, the condition of the camps has also come under scrutiny, as community volunteers described the camps as unsuitable for human habitation.

People recount harrowing tales of horror and miraculous survival as flood swept in without warning, carrying debris including cars and destroying buildings in its wake.

The official death toll after deadly floods hit the town on Wednesday, May 28, has risen to more than 200, and over a thousand people still missing, while more than 3,000 houses are said to have been affected.

Farida Auwalu, the lone survivor from a family of 16, lost seven children in the flood. The bodies of four of Farida’s children have been found and buried. “My hope is to see the remaining bodies and give them a decent burial and have closure,” she said.

One man, Adamu Yusuf, lost his wife and newborn baby. Recounting his loss, Yusuf said he lost nine relatives. “I lost almost nine. Most of them are females. Four were children and five were adults. My mother, sisters, and cousins were involved,” said Yusuf.

“I watched helplessly as water washed away my family. I survived because I could swim,” he told the BBC.

He added that he suspected the flood was not caused by heavy rainfall, as widely believed. “People are saying it was rain, but to me, it was not rain. I don’t know how it happened. We just saw water.”

According to reports, residents said they saw their homes and family members get washed away.

Also, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said it was collaborating with other partners to support authorities in scaling up emergency health response in three communities affected by flooding in Mokwa.

The WHO, in an X post, said it was conducting a public health risk assessment to respond to potential epidemic-prone diseases and other health threats.

“In response to the catastrophic flooding in Niger State in western Nigeria, WHO and partners are supporting the authorities in scaling up emergency health response. 186 people have been injured and 175 deaths reported, with over 13,000 people in need of humanitarian assistance and the possibility of more flash flooding.

“WHO is conducting a public health risk assessment to respond to potential epidemic-prone diseases and other health threats and preparing to send emergency medical supplies and equipment to support primary health care,” the post read.

The Acting Director General of the Niger State Emergency Management Agency (NSEMA), Ibrahim Hussaini, on Wednesday said the devastating flood that wreaked havoc in communities in Mokwa has left the victims traumatised.

Speaking on Channels Television’s Sunrise Daily on Tuesday, Hussaini described the situation in the area was “massive,” stressing that residents were not willing to relocate to the temporary shelter provided for them due to the mental impact of the scale of the disaster.

He explained that the tightly knit nature of the community, where most residents are related, had also made them prefer to stay with neighbours rather than move into relief camps for fear of congestion and discomfort.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has approved the sum of N2b and 20 trucks of rice for victims. The Vice President, Kashim Shettima, said: “The President specifically instructed me to come to Mokwa to commiserate with the people over the tragedy that befell the town. His heart is with the grieving people of Mokwa.

“All issues raised will be addressed by the federal government in collaboration with the Niger government,” he said

Kashim disclosed that the President had also directed the Ministers for Environment and state for Agriculture to relocate to Niger to ensure immediate intervention under the ACRSAL project for drainage issues in Mokwa town.

He added that 20 trucks of food items have been approved by Tinubu to be distributed to the actual victims in collaboration with the Village Head of Mokwa.

The Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Professor Joseph Utsev, had in April unveiled the 2025 Annual Flood Outlook, which indicated that 1,249 communities across 176 local government areas in 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory fell within the high flood-risk areas in 2025.

The states, which the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency identified as high flood risks, were Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross-River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Gombe, Imo and Jigawa. Others are Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara.

“According to the forecast, 657 communities in 52 council areas are expected to experience high flood risk between April and June. Five hundred and 54 communities in 142 local councils between July and September; and 484 communities in 56 local councils from October to November.

“Moderate flood risk is projected for 445 communities in 116 local councils from April to June, 1,458 communities in 271 local councils from July to September, and 1,473 communities in 171 local councils between October and November,” the Minister said.

According to the 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction released by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), the country is expected to witness high intensity rainfall in May and June, which may lead to flash floods in coastal cities.

According to experts, the floods could be triggered by excessive rainfall, poor drainage, and rising sea levels, especially in coastal states such as Lagos, Delta, Bayelsa and Rivers.

Already, the Federal Government had raised the alarm that 30 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) were currently at risk of flooding, reminiscent of last Wednesday’s flood in which over 200 persons lost their lives in Mokwa, Niger State, where several houses were also washed away, rendering thousands homeless.

Utsev, who raised the alarm at a briefing in Abuja, also said the flood in Mokwa was not caused by any release of water from Kainji and Jebba dams, but by heavy rainfall, heightened by the effects of climate change.

He said the high casualty figure was caused by lack of adherence by people in the state to flood warnings.

While asking states to put measures in place to stave massive flooding that could destroy lives and properties, the minister said: “The Federal Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation extends its heartfelt sympathy and solidarity to the government and the good people of Niger State, especially the affected communities in Mokwa, who have experienced losses, deaths and displacements as a result of this natural disaster.

“I like to emphasise that the flood was not caused by water releases from either the Kainji or Jebba dams and that both dams are intact and safe.

“The flood in Mokwa town was primarily caused by heavy rainfall owing to extreme weather conditions, occasioned by climate change, an emerging global phenomenon, which overwhelmed local drainage systems.

“Additionally, unregulated building and construction activities blocked an ephemeral tributary of River Dingi, a regressive river, a tributary of River Niger, which remains dry almost all year round with flows solely dependent on surface runoff by rainfall.

“The absence of efficient alternative pathways to redirect the excess water further worsened the flood’s impact on the communities.”

The Nigerian Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) had raised concerns that poor drainage infrastructure, coupled with the release of excess water from the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon, could lead to record-high river flooding—especially in Kogi, Anambra, Delta and Bayelsa.

NIHSA, in its own 2025 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO), warned that over 1,200 communities across 176 local councils are on red alert.

This year’s AFO segments the risk into three phases: April to June: 657 communities in 52 councils at high risk; July to September: 544 communities in 142 councils; and October to November: 484 communities in 56 local councils.

NIHSA said the stakes are high, as 33 states including FCT will likely experience high flood risks between April and November. Another 2,187 communities in 293 local councils, however, fall under the moderate risk category.

Experts however say that these forecasts are not heeded. Every year, predictions are made and at the end, floods often take over the country. Nigeria experienced flooding in 2012 and 2018, while similar incidents were closely replicated in 2022 with high rainfall and flows.

In 2022, a total of 32 states of the federation was affected by flood and no fewer than 66,622 persons, 6,136 houses and many farmlands were affected.

Speaking with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) recently in Abuja, the National Coordinator of United Nations Development Programme, Global Environment Facility, Small Grants Programme (UNDP GEF SGP), Mrs Ibironke Olubamise, urged communities to remain vigilant, drawing lessons from past experiences, and not to underestimate the devastating impact of flooding.

“We must improve our strategies and develop clear evacuation plans, including identifying alternative routes for movement,” she said.

According to her, this would also help reduce the pressure on emergency response efforts should flooding occur. “It is essential to enforce compliance with safety guidelines within communities to ensure people adhere to early warnings and advice provided by authorities.”

Olubamise stressed that the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) could support communities by providing first aid kits in anticipation of potential flooding, rather than waiting until disaster strikes.

“NEMA can also explore traditional knowledge and practices that communities have historically used to prepare for and manage heavy rainfall.

“Relevant agencies should incorporate such indigenous practices to ensure that accurate, timely, and adequate information is disseminated to communities,” she advised.

From Forecast To Field: NEMA’s Early Moves
The Guardian checks show that the Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation has announced a National Flood Insurance Programme to be piloted in Kogi and Jigawa, two flood-prone states. Also underway is the Integrated Climate Resilience Project, targeted at riverine infrastructure, water sanitation, and early warning systems.

“The idea is to shift from disaster response to climate adaptation,” said the Minister of Water Resources, during the AFO launch in Abuja.

NEMA is expected to play a central role in these programmes. However, with only a fraction of Nigeria’s 774 LGAs having functional disaster desks, the road to resilience remains steep.

NEMA has already begun community-level sensitisation in states like Jigawa, Kogi, and Anambra some of the worst-hit in previous floods.

Officials say relief warehouses have been restocked with food and non-food items. But with the forecast this year singling out high-density urban areas like Abuja, Port Harcourt, Makurdi, and Ibadan as flash flood hotspots, many wonder if the response architecture is adequate.

Also, Head of Operations at the Ibadan NEMA office, Kadiri Olanrewaju, revealed that the agency has launched a series of awareness campaigns and community sensitisation drives to encourage proactive flood prevention measures across Oyo, Ogun, and Osun states.

According to him, local communities and landlord associations are being urged to begin clearing their drainage systems immediately to reduce the risk of urban flooding. “We’ve started a series of sensitisation campaigns across our jurisdiction. It’s crucial that residents take early action, especially by clearing drains before the rains intensify,” he said.

As part of its emergency preparedness strategy, he said they are also engaging security forces to ensure swift response in the event of flood-related disasters. Olanrewaju revealed that a courtesy visit was paid to the Commander of the 81 Battalion of the Nigerian Army two weeks ago.

“The aim was to seek their support in case there’s a need for emergency evacuation of trapped flood victims. Similar engagements are being planned with Disaster Response Units (DRUs) in both Ogun and Osun states to bolster regional response capacity.”

He emphasised that collaborative efforts between communities, local authorities, and the military would be key to minimising the impact of potential flood events in the region.

To reinforce NEMA’s operational capacity, the Federal Government recently approved a N15 billion intervention fund. The agency’s Director General, Zubaida Umar, confirmed that the funds will be deployed to strengthen response mechanisms, improve logistics, and preposition relief materials in vulnerable communities.

Flood and coastal risk management advisor, Olujumoke Ogunrayi, warned that the current N15 billion budget allocated for disaster preparedness might not be enough to address the country’s growing flood vulnerability.

She highlighted the limitations of the budget, emphasising that while it shows recognition of the urgency of disaster preparedness, it falls short of the resources required for comprehensive national response and resilience-building.

According to her, effective flood mitigation demands a multi-dimensional strategy, including infrastructure development, early warning systems, community awareness campaigns, emergency response systems, and post-disaster reconstruction.

She stressed that resettlement costs, relief materials, inter-agency coordination, and public infrastructure rebuilding significantly exceed the financial provisions currently available. “Beyond budgetary constraints, drainage infrastructure in many Nigerian urban centers remains grossly inadequate.”

Ogunrayi described the drainage systems as obsolete, poorly maintained, and unable to handle the intensifying effects of climate change, leading to frequent flash floods. Cities like Lagos, Port Harcourt, Makurdi, Ibadan, and parts of Abuja are particularly vulnerable due to poor urban planning, blocked drains, and uncontrolled development.

She noted that rapid and unplanned urbanisation, indiscriminate waste disposal, construction on natural water channels and wetlands, inadequate infrastructure maintenance, and increased rainfall intensity due to climate change contributes to urban flooding.

Ogunrayi urged both government officials and citizens to take proactive measures, including redesigning urban drainage infrastructure, enforcing compliance with urban development regulations, and fostering behavioral change regarding waste disposal and land use and strengthening legal frameworks to ensure adherence to flood mitigation strategies are crucial steps forward.

In 2024, NEMA said at least 49 people were killed and thousands displaced in the country after heavy rains caused flooding in the northeast.

NEMA spokesperson said three states, Jigawa, Adamawa and Taraba were hit hard by floods with 41,344 people displaced.

According to him, the floods destroyed farmlands, which affected 693 hectares of agricultural land.

The Lagos Territorial Coordinator of NEMA, Ibrahim Farinloye, also disclosed that the agency is working closely with key stakeholders and communities to ensure early warning systems, public sensitisation, and infrastructure preparedness are in place.

“NEMA is advising residents in flood-prone areas to ‘park and move’ transition from areas with motorable risk to safer environments, avoid temporary shelters in flood zones, move to higher ground, and follow all instructions issued by public safety officials. Parents should be cautious in sending children on errands when the clouds indicate rain,” Farinloye said.

Farinloye revealed that the Lagos Operation Office has already identified and assessed flood-prone areas across the state, including parts of Agege, Ifako-Ijaiye, Alimosho, and Ojo LGAs. Areas such as Oyatoki Street, Sango-Ota Toll Gate, Command Bridge, and Oba Daodu Street are considered high-risk zones.

He noted that NEMA has held strategic meetings with agencies such as the Lagos State Emergency Management Agency (LASEMA), Ministry of Environment and Water Resources, LAWMA, and Community Development Associations. Public awareness campaigns are ongoing, with the support of volunteers and NYSC Corps members, focusing on proper waste disposal, drainage clearance, and the importance of climate adaptation.

“In case of displacement, our emergency shelter can accommodate up to 1,000 persons,” assuring residents of the agency’s readiness to respond promptly to emergencies.

He also urged residents to secure loose outdoor items, unplug sensitive electronics ahead of floods, and avoid parking or camping near water bodies. “People should be alert to changing weather conditions and elevate basement items to reduce damage,” he added.

In preparation for expected heavy rainfall, NEMA convened a high-level stakeholders’ forum in March 2025 to analyse the Nigerian Meteorological Agency’s Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP).

According to NEMA’s Director General, Zubaida Umar, the forum was aimed at developing early mitigation strategies and strengthening inter-agency coordination. “Disaster preparedness must be a collective effort,” she said, emphasising the need for collaboration across sectors.

A flood risk consultant, Geohazard Risk Mapping Initiative, Taiwo Ogunwumi, emphasised the need for localised early warning systems, better federal-state coordination and long term planning that integrates climate projections to effectively mitigate future flood risks.

“To truly address the country’s escalating flood vulnerabilities; NEMA must go beyond emergency response and invest in anticipatory action. High risk zones, especially riverine communities in Kogi, Benue and Delta States, urgently need real time flood monitoring dashboards and localized early warning systems that allow timely community level action.”

He noted that while NEMA has made commendable progress in coordinating emergency relief efforts, the agency’s overall approach still falls short of global best practices, which prioritise prevention, risk-informed planning, and resilience building.

“From a global standpoint, NEMA’s model is largely reactive. What we need are pre-disaster investments, training communities, building local capacity, and deploying climate-informed planning tools. Without this shift, each flood season will keep catching us unprepared.”

To align with global climate adaptation strategies, he recommended the adoption of community-based adaptation (CBA) models that empower locals with tools such as rainwater harvesting systems, elevated shelters, and grassroots flood monitoring.

He also advocated for nature-based solutions like wetland restoration and green buffer zones, as well as integrated urban water management systems that incorporate permeable pavements and flood retention ponds in cities.

“Urban resilience must include sustainable drainage systems and strict enforcement of land-use policies in flood-prone areas. Climate-resilient infrastructure planning is no longer optional, it’s a necessity,” he said.

In addition to physical infrastructure, Ogunwumi proposed innovative financial tools like index-based flood insurance to cushion the economic impact of floods on farmers and vulnerable households.

He also highlighted the ways climate change is amplifying flood risks across Nigeria. “We are seeing more intense rainfall, rising sea levels, and unpredictable weather patterns. These changes increase flash floods, river overflows, and urban flooding, often overwhelming the limited infrastructure in place.”

Ogunwumi urged urgent policy shifts to include mandatory climate risk assessments for infrastructure and housing projects, the creation of a national climate adaptation fund, and improved data-sharing among government agencies for integrated disaster risk management.

“Unless we move toward a proactive, climate-informed disaster management system, we will continue to suffer avoidable human and economic losses year after year,” he warned.
Urban Vulnerability, Weak Drainage

A lecturer at the Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Oluwafemi Odunsi, said existing urban planning frameworks in Nigeria are outdated, poorly implemented, and disconnected from modern climate realities.

“Nigeria’s urban planning policies are comprehensive on paper, but their impact is weakened by corrupt practices, technical barriers, underfunding and bureaucratic inefficiencies, we still have many informal settlements, slums and shanties because most of our cities are still without development plans. Those with plans have them poorly implemented. We could only point to Lagos and Abuja as having some reflections of urban planning.”

Odunsi noted that flood risk is not adequately addressed in current policies, as there is no standalone flood management legislation or integration between urban planning and disaster risk reduction frameworks.

“As it stands, current urban planning policies in the country did not adequately address flood risks. They have only established guidelines for restrictions on floodplains and flood risk zones, which partially address flood hazards and exposure. Also, there is the lack of flood specific legislation as a standalone flood management policy in Nigeria. In general, no integrative legislation exists on disaster management and urban planning. This gap was once presented in our article we argued that there has been no concrete evidence by law for the direct involvement of urban planning agencies and bodies in disaster management, what we have is only the framework establishing institutions like NEMA, State Emergency Agency (SEMA) and Local Emergency Management Authority (LEMA) at the federal, state, and local government levels, respectively.”

He recommended the adoption of integrated policy strategies that will address urban planning and flood risk management from standardised.

“They should holistically address flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability as well as adaptive capacities from a sustainable urban planning perspective. This will ensure that Nigeria has comprehensive and strategic planning instruments to take proactive decisions and actions. In particular, to mitigate flood risks, we need holistic contemporary planning interventions that involve building sustainable and climate resilient cities. We can emulate the Global North by developing green cities, sponge cities, smart cities, digital twin cities, and circular economy cities.

“We need holistic contemporary planning interventions that involve building sustainable and climate-resilient cities. For instance, the sponge and green city ideas come with the solutions of using nature-based strategies to manage water sustainably, reduce flooding, and improve urban resilience,” he explained.

Addressing infrastructure development in rapidly growing cities such as Lagos, Kano, and Port Harcourt, he emphasised the need for climate-informed decisions, and providing information on the design, implementation and enforcement of green-blue infrastructure, energy efficient and participatory governance. “Our cities need development plans and proper implementation for them to function appropriately. We cannot be doing things haphazardly without appropriate planning instruments. The government must invest in research and provide funding to study the current trajectories. The green and sponge city concepts can then be adapted to solve our problems through indigenous methods and local intelligence.”

An urban planner, Temiloluwa Somefun, said while NEMA has made commendable efforts in emergency preparedness including early warning alerts, community sensitisation and collaboration with relevant agencies the underlying issues that make flooding worse in the cities linked to how we plan or don’t plan our urban spaces remain largely unaddressed.

He said poor land use practices, construction of flood prone areas and a lack of basic infrastructure like drainage systems continue to expose many communities to the dangers of seasonal flooding.

“It’s important that flood preparedness isn’t seen as just the responsibility of emergency agencies, planners, engineers, local government and even community members all have a role to play. If we don’t plan our cities with climate resilience in mind, these flood cycles will keep repeating. Real resilience comes out just from reacting to floods but from building cities that are designed to handle them.”

Somefun added that the failure of zoning regulations especially in Lagos as a major contributor to the problem. “Zoning speaks to setting boundaries for building development but in Lagos, due to greed and non compliance developers erect structures indiscriminately without checking if the land is in a flood prone area.”

He further pointed out that inadequate drainage infrastructure is often a result of unregulated development as building permits are supposed to be contingent on designs that include drainage plans but corruption within regulatory agencies often undermines this process.

“This should be the normal way but there are so much loopholes in the approval system, as government officials who are expected to regulate this are deeply involved in their corrupt practices will continue to expose us to flood vulnerability.”

He noted that while the necessary regulation already exists, stronger enforcement and a shift toward climate resilient planning are critical. “Flood preparedness should not be left to emergency agencies alone. The government must match its awareness with real action in urban development to prevent recurring disasters and unnecessary relief spending.”