Op-ed: Countering Alarmist Narratives: Debunking Al-Shabaab’s perceived ‘power grab’ in Somalia
Addis Abeba – In response to Adam Daud Ahmed’s recent op-ed, “From Insurgency to Power Grab: Al-Shabaab’s deadly advance on Mogadishu signals Somalia’s descent into disaster,” published by Addis Standard, I believe a critical review of its key arguments is necessary. Ahmed’s analysis, intended to highlight Somalia’s security challenges, oversimplifies Al-Shabaab’s capabilities and the Federal Government of Somalia’s resilience. A more nuanced and evidence-based assessment is therefore necessary.
Ahmed’s core argument, positing Al-Shabaab’s transition from an insurgency to a governing entity poised for the capture of Mogadishu, is fundamentally flawed. This narrative disregards the established pattern of Al-Shabaab’s fluctuating territorial control, characterized by a reliance on asymmetric warfare rather than sustained conventional dominance. This pattern indicates an insurgency focused on disruption, not the establishment of enduring governance.
Furthermore, Ahmed’s analysis omits crucial context regarding the counterterrorism efforts of the Somali National Army (SNA) and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Recent military operations have yielded demonstrable successes, reclaiming strategic territories and disrupting Al-Shabaab’s operational capacity, directly contradicting the notion of an imminent takeover.
The depiction of the Somali federal government as a “failing entity” consumed by internal strife necessitates a more nuanced perspective. Political tensions within Somalia’s federal system, such as those with Puntland and Jubaland, reflect the inherent complexities of a developing federal structure. While significant, these disputes do not necessarily signify systemic collapse. The current administration’s efforts to unify regional states under a national security framework, alongside intensified military operations and increased civilian-military cooperation, demonstrate a proactive approach to security challenges.
The assertion that the fall of Mogadishu would destabilize the Horn of Africa and lead to the establishment of a radical Islamist state is an overstatement. Unlike the Taliban, Al-Shabaab lacks widespread popular support, maintaining control through coercion rather than voluntary allegiance. The population of Somalia largely rejects the group’s extremist ideology.
The assertion that the fall of Mogadishu would destabilize the Horn of Africa and lead to the establishment of a radical Islamist state is an overstatement.”
Moreover, Somalia benefits from substantial military, intelligence, and financial support from international allies, including the United States, Turkey, Qatar, and the African Union, mitigating the risk of regional destabilization. Simplistic comparisons with the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan fail to acknowledge the fundamentally different socio-political context in Somalia, characterized by a stronger tradition of resistance to extremist rule and a robust network of international support.
Instead of alarmist pronouncements, a constructive approach necessitates a balanced analysis that acknowledges both the challenges and the progress in Somalia. This includes recognizing the government’s efforts to strengthen its security apparatus and address governance issues. The international community should prioritize sustained support for Somalia’s stabilization efforts, including military assistance, capacity building, and governance reforms. Emphasizing the resilience of the people of Somalia and the vital role of community-led resistance in countering Al-Shabaab’s influence is crucial. Sensationalist narratives undermine stability efforts and can create a self-fulfilling prophecy of despair.
In conclusion, Ahmed’s op-ed, while intended to raise awareness, presents a distorted and counterproductive narrative. A more nuanced and evidence-based analysis is essential to inform effective policy and support Somalia’s progress towards stability. The focus must remain on fostering constructive engagement and recognizing the resilience of the people of Somalia. AS
Abdinasir Ali Osman (Prof.) is a senior researcher, consultant, and trainer based in Mogadishu, Somalia, with more than 35 years of experience in the humanitarian, development, and institutional capacity-building sectors. He can be reached at [email protected]
Crédito: Link de origem