Ninety-One raises bet on mining firm of Africa’s first Black billionaire, stake tops $80 million

Key Points

• The asset manager increased its holdings in African Rainbow Minerals to 5%, valuing its investment at over $80 million despite weak earnings.
• The miner expects first-half 2025 earnings to drop to $72 million–$88 million, down from $160 million a year earlier, reflecting a downturn in the commodities sector.
• Despite a 12.3% share price drop in 2025, Ninety One strengthens its position in ARM, signaling confidence in the miner’s long-term resilience.

Ninety One, an independent asset management firm, has deepened its bet on African Rainbow Minerals (ARM), increasing the market value of its holdings in South Africa-based diversified mining corporation—controlled by the continent’s first Black billionaire, Patrice Motsepe—to more than $80 million.

The move boosts Ninety One’s stake from 3.5 percent to 5 percent, reinforcing its investment strategy even as the miner reports its weakest earnings in seven years. 

Ninety One positions for a rebound

The increased position, disclosed in a regulatory filing on Friday, Feb. 28, 2025, signals Ninety One’s confidence in ARM’s long-term financial performance despite the miner posting its weakest earnings in seven years.

ARM expects first-half 2025 headline earnings to range between R1.33 billion ($72 million) and R1.625 billion ($88 million), a stark drop from R2.955 billion ($160 million) a year earlier, underscoring the impact of cyclical downturns in the resources sector.

By raising its stake by 1.5 percent, Ninety One is doubling down on a recovery play, betting on ARM’s resilience and the broader upside in the commodities market despite a 12.3 percent drop in its share price in 2025. With its holdings now valued at R1.52 billion ($81.1 million), the asset manager strengthens its position as a key institutional investor in one of South Africa’s most prominent mining companies.

Compliance and market impact

In line with regulatory requirements, ARM, which mines iron ore, manganese, platinum group metals (PGMs), coal, and base metals has confirmed receipt of the disclosure, and the necessary filings have been made with the Takeover Regulation Panel. 

The latest increase reinforces Ninety-One’s ongoing strategy of capitalizing on opportunities in the mining sector, solidifying its position as a major investor in companies with strong growth potential and a well-established legacy.

Patrice Motsepe’s continued influence in South Africa’s mining sector

African Rainbow Minerals (ARM), a JSE-listed mining giant with a $1.62 billion market cap, has key interests in PGMs, iron ore, coal, copper, and gold.

Founded by Motsepe, who holds a 45.9 percent stake, ARM is South Africa’s first Black-owned mining company and remains under his leadership as executive chairman, driving its global competitiveness.

ARM’s 11.8 percent stake in Harmony Gold, the world’s 12th-largest gold producer, bolsters its gold sector presence. Its expansion strategy includes a joint venture with Xstrata in the Goedgevonden coal mine and a $380 million copper project with Vale in Zambia.

Ninety One’s increased stake in ARM reflects its confidence in South Africa’s investment landscape, where it holds over 63 percent exposure to local equities. The move signals a broader commitment to strategic investments in the country’s mining sector, reinforcing support for sustainable resource development amid shifting global commodity cycles.