Morocco’s Rainfall May Be Affected by Strong El Niño in 2026-2027, Study Says

Casablanca – El Niño is expected to strengthen through late 2026, but its potential effects on Morocco are more complex than a simple drought forecast. A Hydralma report citing a 2025 study published in Scientific Reports says Morocco’s rainfall is influenced by several oceanic and atmospheric patterns whose effects vary by season.

During winter, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Mediterranean Oscillation, and other Atlantic circulation patterns exert a major influence on Moroccan rainfall. A positive NAO is generally associated with lower winter precipitation in Morocco because atmospheric circulation can push Atlantic weather systems farther north.

ENSO, the climate pattern that includes El Niño, also plays a role, but the relationship is not constant. The study found that the strength, direction, and geographic distribution of the link between ENSO and Moroccan rainfall vary depending on the season, region, and historical period.

Its statistical influence has also appeared stronger since the 2000s than at the end of the 20th century, while interactions between Pacific and Atlantic climate signals have become more complex.

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The report says El Niño does not automatically mean drought in Morocco. During winter, its influence is generally weaker than that of the NAO and broader North Atlantic circulation. Positive Niño 3.4 anomalies have even been associated with slightly higher precipitation in some northern parts of Morocco, although the effect remains secondary.

The situation can change in spring. The study found a more consistent negative association between Niño 3.4 and rainfall in some central and Saharan areas, with larger rainfall deficits during strong El Niño events.

For the winter of 2026-2027, the report says it is still too early to determine whether Morocco will experience dry or wet conditions based on El Niño alone.

Other factors include the NAO, Atlantic circulation, the Azores High, Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, Mediterranean circulation, atmospheric blocking, and regional seasonal forecasts.

As autumn and winter approach, the report says Morocco should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Directorate General of Meteorology (DGM), changes in the NAO, conditions in the North Atlantic, circulation over the western Mediterranean, the position of Atlantic depressions, sea-surface temperatures, observed rainfall, and the evolution of dam levels, soil moisture, and water resources.