Locked Out, Not Backing Down: Ethiopia’s strategic maritime interests amid Red Sea power struggle

By Yohanan Yokamo

Addis Abeba – Throughout history, the Red Sea has drawn varying levels of attention due to the strategic interests of different actors and the region’s shifting geopolitical landscape. Since the turn of the century—particularly following the Arab Spring—both regional and international focus on this vital waterway has intensified. This heightened interest stems largely from port expansions and the growing presence of foreign military bases. As a result, the Red Sea coastline has transformed into one of the world’s “military garrisons.”

Ethiopia, as a landlocked nation, has significant security interests in the Red Sea. The waterway serves as a crucial trade route, facilitating the country’s imports and exports. Consequently, Ethiopia has increased its diplomatic engagement with organizations such as the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), closely monitoring developments related to maritime governance. These efforts reflect Ethiopia’s deep concerns over activities in the region.

The geopolitics surrounding the Red Sea has long been an arena of strategic competition, where Ethiopia has been a target since the Second World War. Due to its proximity and regional involvement, Ethiopia has faced political, economic, and security repercussions from developments along the sea. The connection between the Red Sea’s geostrategic significance and Ethiopia’s strategic interests makes the country highly sensitive to events in and around this maritime corridor. Several state and non-state actors have already established military bases near the Red Sea, while others seek to expand their presence along its coastline. This raises a critical question: What are the implications for Ethiopia’s security?

The coastal states along the Red Sea—such as Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia, and Kenya—play a crucial role in Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access. In this context, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have taken the lead in establishing the Red Sea Forum for regional negotiations, formulating a framework that primarily serves coastal states. However, Ethiopia and other key stakeholders have been excluded from this initiative.

The connection between the Red Sea’s geostrategic significance and Ethiopia’s strategic interests makes the country highly sensitive to events in and around this maritime corridor.”

“Any effort to govern the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden that does not include us will not be fair or realistic; the Red Sea is a natural and strategic outlet for us,” a high-ranking Ethiopian diplomat stated in response to the Saudi-Egyptian proposal. Indeed, Ethiopia’s exclusion from a Red Sea forum could impede the development of ports, infrastructure, and energy resources across the Horn, as well as its expanding engagement with the Gulf States.

Struggle for Red Sea Space: Ethiopia’s Path Forward

The struggle for dominance over the Red Sea has evolved throughout history due to the shifting geopolitical landscape and the interests of various actors. Historically, the maritime corridor has been controlled by several powerful civilizations, including the Axumite Kingdom, the Arab world, and the Ottoman Empire, and later by European and Egyptian forces. According to historical accounts, securing control over this strategic waterway has long been equated with commanding the maritime passage that extends northward into Egypt and Europe while also connecting through Bab el-Mandeb to the Far East and India.

In recent years, a multipolar system has emerged in the Red Sea region. Both regional and global powers have intensified their presence for various strategic reasons. Today, this critical maritime route holds immense economic and security significance, fueling rivalries among nations seeking to protect their interests and project influence. The region is bordered by numerous states with diverse political systems, social structures, and national priorities, making cooperative governance particularly challenging. As a result, states often pursue alliances—both regional and international—to safeguard their interests.

Compared to the broader rivalry between global powers like the United States, China and Russia, competition among regional actors, particularly the Gulf States, has had more immediate and adverse effects on Red Sea stability. Maintaining a balanced approach through neutrality or non-alignment policies is essential in managing these tensions. This approach aligns with Ethiopia’s security interests by enabling it to expand its network of partnerships while ensuring stability in the maritime region. The predictability that comes with non-alignment also allows Ethiopia to navigate the power struggles in the Red Sea more effectively.

To protect Ethiopia’s national security—both internal and external—and to mitigate potential threats arising from foreign military bases and regional competition, raising public awareness of developments in the Red Sea and beyond is crucial. The country should establish an early warning system and adopt a proactive policy to address potential security risks emerging from geopolitical shifts in the region. Public and expert engagement is vital in this effort, as modern warfare is increasingly shifting from traditional combat to technologically driven conflicts and proxy wars. Therefore, strategic thinking in this field must evolve accordingly.

Ethiopia should also prioritize its domestic stability, as internal fragmentation can create fertile ground for insurgents and proxy fighters, as seen in neighboring countries. A clear understanding of the region’s and the world’s political dynamics should inform national policy. This must be reinforced through economic diplomacy and fostering cooperative security arrangements with neighboring states.

Furthermore, Ethiopia’s participation in planned port development projects should be integrated with strengthening its diplomatic corps, enhancing naval capabilities, and advancing intelligence services. These measures will be essential in securing Ethiopia’s long-term interests in the Red Sea and its broader geopolitical environment. AS

Yohanan Yokamo is a lecturer and researcher at the College of Law and Governance, Hawassa University.

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