Is oil-rich South Sudan the next failed state?

• UN says South Sudan is experiencing mass displacement of communities, rising tensions and attacks on civilians.
• On March 4th, White Army – a youth militia – overran an army barracks of South Sudan in Nasir, within Upper Nile province.
• Since then, over 60,000 people have fled the area fearing retaliatory attacks. Armed groups are reportedly mobilizing children to wage war.

An escalating wave of mass displacement of people, rising tensions coupled with indiscriminate attacks on civilians is fast pushing South Sudan on the brink of a civil war.

In a briefing on Monday, Nicholas Haysom, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for South Sudan, warned that the East African country is at a risk of an all out war if measures are not put into place to deescalate tensions.

While calling on all parties involved in the conflict to commit to peace, Haysom warned that, “A conflict would erase all the hard-won gains made since the 2018 peace deal was signed. It would devastate not only South Sudan but the entire region, which simply cannot afford another war,” he warned.

South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011 in a process midwifed by the UN and hosted largely in neighbouring Kenya, but over the years the world’s youngest nation has been entagled in conflict and instability.

A civil war erupted in 2013 between the forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and those aligned with his former deputy, Riek Machar. The war – marked by ethnic violence, mass atrocities and widespread humanitarian crisis – lasted until a fragile peace deal was signed in 2018.

Though the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement brought a degree of stability, delays in its implementation and continued political rivalries have kept tensions simmering.

Mounting violence in South Sudan

The latest escalation of conflict and violence erupted on 4 March when a group named White Army – a youth militia – overran an army barracks of South Sudan in Nasir, within Upper Nile province.

In response, Government forces launched aerial bombardments on civilian areas, using barrel bombs that allegedly contained highly flammable accelerants.

“These indiscriminate attacks on civilians are causing significant casualties and horrific injuries, especially burns, including to women and children,” Mr. Haysom explained from Juba in a video feed, adding that at least 63,000 people have fled the area.

However, in a pointer to escalating violence, intelligence reports show tha both the White Army and national forces are mobilising and arming their groups in rediness for further confrontations. Already, there are reports that the warring parties are recruiting children into armed groups.

The deployment of foreign forces at the request of the Government has further heightened tensions, evoking painful memories of the country’s previous civil wars. In early March, Uganda military head announced that the neigbouring country had deployed soldiers in Juba to “secure it.”

“As of 2 days ago, our Special Forces units entered Juba to secure it,” Uganda’s military chief, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, said in a series of posts on X.

“We the UPDF (Ugandan military), only recognise one President of South Sudan, H.E. Salva Kiir … any move against him is a declaration of war against Uganda,” Muhoozi, who is the son of President Museveni, added.

Further, Felix Kulayigye, the spokesperson for the Ugandan military, noted “Yes we did (deploy them) and they are there on the invitation of government of South Sudan. The situation will determine how long we’ll stay there.”

However, South Sudan minister of information countered this assertion, denying the presence of foreign forces in the capital.

Worsening ethnic tensions

According to UN’s Haysom, political tensions are also escalating in South Sudan with senior government officials affiliated with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO) – the main rival militia – having either been removed, replaced in their positions. A number of them have suffered detentions while others have been forced into hiding.

What’s more, Hayson added South Sudan is under a cloud of increasing use of misinformation, disinformation and hate speech, which is further fuelling ethnic divisions and fear, making reconciliation even more difficult.

“Given this grim situation, we are left with no other conclusion, but to assess that South Sudan is teetering on the edge of a relapse into civil war,” the senior UN official warned.

Diplomatic peace measures not working

Mr. Haysom further reported that UNMISS has engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts alongside regional and international partners, including the African Union (AU), the regional development bloc, IGAD, and the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission.

However, a scheduled high-level visit by IGAD foreign ministers to Juba, aimed at mediating between the parties, was abruptly postponed by the South Sudanese government without explanation.

“This is a disappointing development at a time when diplomatic outreach is more important than ever,” he said.

Mr. Haysom called on the leaders of South Sudan to immediately recommit to the 2018 peace deal, respect the ceasefire, release detained officials and resolve disputes through dialogue rather than military confrontation.

He also called for President Kiir and First Vice President Machar to meet and publicly reaffirm their joint commitment to peace. “The time for action is now because the alternative is too terrible to contemplate.”

Read also: South Sudan Crisis: How a Broken Pipeline Has Plunged Juba into Chaos