Expert warns against relying on remorse alone in Pretoria Boys High ‘shooting threat’ case

A leading forensic psychologist says violence risk assessment and not remorse alone should guide decisions on a Pretoria Boys High pupil accused of making threats about a possible school shooting.

The 16-year-old, who cannot be identified because he is a minor, is alleged to have made threats to “blow up” his school.

The school and the department are reportedly at odds over whether the pupil should be expelled. The school governing body believes allowing the pupil back could place the school community at risk.

According to details aired during disciplinary proceedings at the school, the pupil allegedly told classmates in WhatsApp voice notes that if there was “ever a school shooting, it was me” and that he intended to “blow the school up”.

The school governing body wanted the pupil expelled after videos allegedly showed him handling firearms, smoking marijuana and discussing access to a Glock pistol.

The pupil’s mother reportedly claimed the firearm was a toy gun and not a real pistol.

The Gauteng education department is opposing the expulsion, saying rehabilitation and behavioural interventions should be prioritised instead.

Speaking to the SABC, department spokesperson Onwabile Lubhelwana said the pupil had shown remorse and should be supported rather than removed from school permanently.

“We don’t think the expulsion of a 16-year-old instead of correcting the behaviour is viable,” he said.

He added that the pupil was under “severe surveillance” and that the government, parents and other stakeholders were working together to monitor and support him.

However, Prof Gérard Labuschagne, a Certified Threat Assessment Professional and former SAPS profiler, warned that remorse alone should not determine whether someone poses a future threat.

“Remorse itself is not how we determine risk for future violence. Remorse is not a protective factor against future violence,” Labuschagne told TimesLIVE.

He said any threat of violence by a pupil should be treated seriously and assessed properly.

“You cannot formulate an opinion about risk of harm without doing a proper violence risk assessment,” he said.

Labuschagne explained that a violence risk assessment differs from a criminal investigation because it focuses on preventing future harm and protecting people.

“A violence risk assessment is about the future and keeping people safe and helping someone not engaging in behaviour that can get them into trouble and harm others,” he said.

He also warned against dismissing threats simply because no physical violence had yet taken place.

“So the statement ‘he has only made a threat, he hasn’t done anything’ is not true,” said Labuschagne.

He said threats themselves can cause psychological harm and anxiety within a school community.

“With any threat or concerning behaviour, there is already a psychological impact which is harmful. I am sure the kids at Pretoria Boys High School have varying levels of anxiety and fear about this issue.”

Labuschagne said expulsion alone would not necessarily reduce the risk of future violence.

“Expulsion will have a negative impact and won’t reduce the risk of possible violence,” he said.

“In fact, expelling someone adds risk factors to the person’s situation and can increase the risk.”

He said any intervention should form part of a broader management strategy involving parents, mental health professionals and the school.

“Parents, mental health workers, case managers, the school, all have to be part of the same coordinated plan.”

Labuschagne stressed that support and safety should go hand in hand.

“You need a ‘report to support’ mindset. If we are thinking about punishment, then we aren’t thinking about safety,” he said.

The Gauteng education department said discussions with the school were continuing.

TimesLIVE