Ethiopia’s War On Its Future: a Generational Crisis in the Making

In the modern era, a nation’s prosperity is defined by the strength of its human capital, not its natural resources, but its minds. Yet in Ethiopia, a combination of wars, political instability, and systemic neglect is devastating the country’s brain capital, threatening to undermine decades of hard-won progress and casting a shadow over future generations.

Brain capital includes the mental resources and capabilities that enable individuals to thrive in complex, modern societies. Investing in education, mental health, nutrition, and safe, stimulating environments is crucial for building this capital. When effectively nurtured, brain capital boosts productivity, fortifies economies, fosters innovation, and alleviates poverty. However, when disregarded or undermined, the repercussions can last across generations.

Ethiopia’s wars have led to mass displacement, family separations, and exposure to violence at unprecedented scales

Ethiopia’s alarming trends

Education in crisis: From empty schools to empty futures

Research shows that absence from school, especially in early and formative years, significantly disrupts brain development. Today, over 9 million children are out of school in Ethiopia, and 35% of the school-aged children are not in classrooms. In the Amhara region alone, over 4.5 million children have missed two consecutive school years due to conflict. More than 10,000 schools are estimated to have been shut down or repurposed as military camps. Reports coming out of conflict-affected regions indicate that teachers and school administrators are being targeted for execution, imprisonment, torture, and kidnapping for ransom. Nationally, only 3.2% of Grade 12 students passed the university entrance exam in 2023. These numbers are extremely alarming and show the dire need for immediate action. Children who miss extended periods of education suffer setbacks in literacy, executive functioning, and emotional regulation. Long-term cognitive performance is stunted, and opportunities for upward mobility are curtailed. Education in early years is also indicated to be associated with a significant risk for developing neurodegenerative disease and dementia in old age.

Malnutrition and food security

According to the Global Hunger Index report, 36.8% of children under five in Ethiopia are stunted, and 6.8% suffer from wasting. The same report indicated that 22% of the Ethiopian population is undernourished. Other reports also show similar trends, suggesting that severe nutritional problems have reached a critical level. The magnitude of malnutrition has increased over the past few years, and the distribution is directly related to the country’s wars and drought patterns. Scientific studies confirm that undernutrition in the first 1,000 days of life leads to irreversible cognitive impairments. Poor nutrition in early life limits brain development, weakens the immune system, and reduces future productivity. Malnutrition diminishes brain volume, delays neurodevelopment, and weakens memory, attention, and learning capacity – all foundational components of brain capital.

The hidden costs of war

Children and adults exposed to war and armed conflicts are at elevated risk for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, anxiety, and cognitive impairment. Ethiopia’s wars have led to mass displacement, family separations, and exposure to violence at unprecedented scales. Mental health services are minimal, and trauma is going unaddressed, setting the stage for lifelong psychological harm. Exposure to armed conflict and chronic trauma affects brain structure, particularly in areas responsible for emotion regulation, memory, and learning. Children in war zones often exhibit reduced grey matter development and higher susceptibility to psychiatric conditions, drastically weakening their brain potential and long-term quality of life.

Unsafe environments, social fragmentation, and political toxicity

Ethiopia’s ongoing wars have led to the destruction of schools, communities, and homes. Research indicates that deteriorating built environments adversely impact brain health and cognitive development, particularly among children. Safe, nurturing, and stimulating environments are essential for learning and emotional development. However, millions of Ethiopian children are growing up amidst devastation and political turmoil. The lack of access to structured and enriching environments diminishes neuroplasticity. It also negatively affects performance in tasks related to attention and memory, particularly during crucial developmental periods.

Ethiopia’s wars and politically repressive atmosphere have also compromised its social cohesion. The toxic stress resulting from unstable environments detrimentally affects brain function and emotional regulation. Studies reveal that children raised in polarized or violent communities are more susceptible to experiencing cognitive delays, behavioral challenges, and mental health disorders. These issues are especially pronounced among individuals who are subjected to fear, discrimination, or political violence.

Brain drains and professional dissatisfaction

An increasing number of medical practitioners, health professionals, researchers, and educators are departing the country. Some of the reasons to be mentioned include inadequate working conditions, political oppression, and insufficient institutional support. Specifically, the healthcare and education sectors have experienced heightened attrition rates. The phenomenon known as “brain drain” signifies a direct depletion of a nation’s intellectual capital. When skilled individuals emigrate, nations forfeit their expertise. Future mentorship and potential for innovation and leadership are lost. Continued dissatisfaction among professionals’ results in disengagement, suboptimal performance, and a further deterioration of developmental prospects.

What should be done?

Ethiopia’s future hinges on a single, undeniable truth: its youth are its greatest asset. With over 70% of the population under 30, human capital holds the key to transforming Ethiopia into an economic powerhouse driven by innovation and resilience. In an era where economic advancement is directly linked to innovation, skilled labor, and advancing technology, investing in human capital is essential. Unfortunately, Ethiopia seems to be heading in the opposite direction. The scars of the government’s never-ending military campaigns – in Amhara, Oromia, Tigray regions, and beyond – have threatened this promise.