Ethiopia’s Maritime Gamble: Seize opportunity with Somaliland’s offer or yield to Somalia’s pressure?
By Adam Daud Ahmed
Addis Abeba – The Horn of Africa stands at the crossroads of its history. In January 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that can dramatically change the geopolitical realities of the region. For Ethiopia, the deal offers something it has lacked for over three decades—direct access to the sea. The 20-kilometer stretch of coastline in Somaliland, with an exclusive port and naval base, offers Ethiopia a new maritime pathway that could transform its economic and strategic future.
However, the MoU has been met with opposition by Somalia, which has attempted to prevent the agreement through diplomatic pressure and requests for mediation. Regardless of this, Ethiopia must weigh the long-term strategic benefit of this deal against short-term political pressure from Somalia and its allies.
This MoU is not just a trade agreement; it is a golden chance for Ethiopia to position itself as a premier power in the Horn of Africa. The choice rests with Ethiopia: will it seize the opportunity or become a victim of external pressure that could undermine its long-term strategic interests?
Ethiopia, the second most populous nation in Africa, has had to deal with being landlocked since 1993, when it lost access to the sea after Eritrea gained independence. For more than 30 years, Ethiopia has been forced to rely on Djibouti, a small neighboring country, for over 95% of its imports and exports. The reliance on this single sea outlet has subjected Ethiopia to fluctuating tariffs, local instability, and economic challenges.
The Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU offers Ethiopia what it has always desired: direct access to the sea. The agreement gives Ethiopia a 20-kilometer Somaliland coastline, a port, and a naval base—something that no other neighboring state can provide. This access would grant Ethiopia economic autonomy, reduce dependence on Djibouti, and provide it with a strategic presence in the Red Sea, one of the world’s most critical waterways.
Somaliland: Ethiopia’s Stable, Strategic Partner
Somaliland is a far cry from Somalia. While Somalia has been plagued by terrorism, political instability, and bad governance for decades, Somaliland has been peaceful and stable since it broke free from Somalia in 1991. While Somalia is still battling Al-Shabaab militants and a fragile government in Mogadishu, Somaliland has built a functional democracy, developed strong institutions, and nurtured a vibrant economy.
Somaliland’s independence is traced as early as June 1960, when it gained independence from the United Kingdom. Shortly after, on 01 July, 1960, Somaliland united voluntarily with Somalia to form the Republic of Somalia. However, with the collapse of Somalia’s government in the early 1990s, Somaliland reclaimed its independence in 1991, as Somalia’s central government collapsed and the stability of the region was jeopardized.
Somaliland’s stability and security make it the ideal partner for Ethiopia’s maritime aspirations. Unlike Somalia, which is not in a position to guarantee control over its territory due to the presence of extremist groups, Somaliland has been fully in control of its territory for over 30 years, and its government can enforce any agreement it signs.
In addition, Somaliland’s position on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden is much more strategically important than Somalia’s more distant Indian Ocean coastline. Somaliland is, therefore, the natural ally to Ethiopia’s regional interests.
Somalia’s Opposition
Somalia’s objection to the MoU does not come from any valid administrative or territorial interest in Somaliland, but rather from its quest to uphold the pretense of territorial integrity on the basis of colonial-era borders. In spite of its loud protest, Somalia has not had authority over Somaliland’s territory for more than thirty years. Indeed, Somalia’s government is still not able to govern even Mogadishu, the capital, which is constantly under the threat of terrorism and political turmoil.
Somalia’s opposition to the deal is driven by a desire to keep its outdated claims, even though it has no functional control of the territory. The reality is, Somalia has neither the military nor administrative power to project any influence over Somaliland.
Ethiopia’s Golden Opportunity, Perils of Missed Chances
Engaging with Somaliland offers Ethiopia several strategic advantages. First, economic sovereignty: direct access to the sea would reduce Ethiopia’s dependence on Djibouti, giving it greater control over its trade routes and lowering transport costs.
Second, trade route diversification: The Berbera corridor through Somaliland provides a stable alternative to the Djibouti route, offering Ethiopia more flexibility and stability in its trade.
Third, geopolitical influence: With access to Somaliland’s coast, Ethiopia would solidify its position as the dominant power in the Horn of Africa, enhancing its influence over critical trade routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Another advantage is naval presence. A naval base in Somaliland would enable Ethiopia to project power into the Red Sea, a strategically important body of water for both international shipping and military movements.
Finally, regional integration would be fostered. The MoU can stimulate broader infrastructure development and energy cooperation between Ethiopia, Somaliland, and other regional partners, leading to deeper economic ties.
On the other hand, if Ethiopia were to yield to external diplomatic pressures and withdraw from the MoU, it would forgo a strategic opportunity and face several risks. These include the loss of maritime access, leaving Ethiopia landlocked and dependent on the vulnerable Djibouti route for international trade.
Ethiopia’s withdrawal would also embolden Egypt, Turkey, and Somalia, further isolating Ethiopia from key regional issues. Additionally, destabilizing Somaliland could create a security vacuum, opening the door to the spread of extremism and foreign military intervention.
By withdrawing from the MoU, Ethiopia would deny itself significant economic benefits, remaining dependent on costly and unreliable trade routes. Such a move would also damage Ethiopia’s reputation and diminish its leadership influence in the region.
Turkey’s Role, Influence of Other External Powers
Turkey’s involvement as a mediator in the Somaliland-Ethiopia conflict is complicated by its strong connection with Somalia. Turkey has emerged as one of Somalia’s closest friends, providing military training, infrastructure development, and diplomatic support. Turkey’s increasing involvement in Somalia makes it challenging for it to be an impartial mediator, especially when it seeks to exclude Somaliland from the table.
If Turkey continues to back Somalia and ignores Somaliland’s role, it risks further destabilizing the Horn of Africa region in its pursuit of geopolitical interests.
The future of the Horn of Africa cannot be held hostage to colonial borders or anachronistic notions of territorial integrity. The facts on the ground show that Somaliland is a viable state with peace, security, and a stable government, while Somalia is mired in a cycle of instability and foreign dependency.
Ethiopia’s decision to sign the MoU with Somaliland is a pragmatic recognition of this new geopolitical fact. In securing access to the Red Sea, Ethiopia will be securing both its economic future and its geopolitical influence.
Conclusion
The Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU is a historic opportunity for Ethiopia to secure its maritime future and solidify its role as a regional power. Ethiopia must grasp this opportunity to free itself from the chokehold of Djibouti dependence, secure its maritime sovereignty, and assert itself as a leader in the Horn of Africa.
Somaliland is not a “separatist” organization but a de facto state that has long demonstrated stability, self-governance, and peace. The recognition of Somaliland sovereignty is not just a matter of justice but a strategic necessity for ensuring durable peace and stability in the region.
Ethiopia must stand firm in the face of diplomatic pressure, seize this golden opportunity, and set the ground for a future in the interest of Ethiopia and the whole Horn of Africa. AS
Adam Daud Ahmed is a political security Analyst in the Horn of Africa.
Crédito: Link de origem