Ethiopia’s 2026 Election – Democracy’s Last Stand or Authoritarian Coronation?

Addis Abeba — As Ethiopia prepares for the upcoming seventh national election, the country stands at a crucial crossroads that could either strengthen its democracy or deepen authoritarian tendencies. The key question is whether this election will genuinely capture the voices of the Ethiopian populace or merely serve as a symbolic exercise to reinforce the grip of the ruling elite.

The upcoming election is expected to be fiercely contested, yet it unfolds amidst a backdrop of significant challenges, including government crackdowns, political repression, ongoing conflicts, and limited space for opposition parties. These obstacles hinder genuine political competition and the expression of diverse viewpoints, raising doubts about the election’s ability to truly reflect the will of the people. Instead, there are fears that it may serve as a superficial legitimization of a political system dominated by a single party.

Ethiopia’s elections have been a tumultuous journey, characterized by fleeting hopes and persistent disappointments. The 2005 elections stand out as a moment of significance when opposition parties made significant gains, securing around 32% of parliamentary seats. It appeared to signal a shift in the political landscape, long dominated by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). However, this optimism was short-lived as the government swiftly suppressed dissent by arresting opposition leaders, quelling protests resulting in nearly 200 deaths, and resorting to intimidation tactics to maintain control. The facade of political pluralism quickly crumbled, and the status quo was restored.

Subsequent elections further exposed the erosion of democratic principles. The aftermath of the 2005 election revealed the ruling coalition’s claim of 100% of parliamentary seats, exposing the electoral process as a farce. The 2021 election, overshadowed by the war in Tigray and widespread repression, saw the Prosperity Party (PP) secure an overwhelming 96.8% of seats. These results were not the outcome of fair competition but rather a result of manipulated districts, voter suppression, and the exclusion of opposition candidates. Opposition parties were marginalized or outright banned, severely limiting their ability to participate and tilting the political landscape heavily in favor of the ruling elite.

When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed assumed office in 2018, there was a wave of optimism that Ethiopia was on the brink of a transformative period. He released political prisoners, welcomed back exiled armed groups, and pledged a new era of transparency. However, these hopes were short-lived as his government quickly resorted to repressive tactics reminiscent of past regimes, using anti-terrorism laws to stifle dissent, suppressing opposition voices, and centralizing power in Addis Abeba. The 2021 elections, marred by conflict and the imprisonment of numerous opposition leaders, signaled a sudden halt in Ethiopia’s democratic progress.

The 2021 elections marked a turning point in Ethiopia’s regression from democratic principles. Conducted amidst conflict, displacement, and repression, they underscored a government increasingly reliant on coercion rather than popular consent. The ruling party employed various strategies, including structural manipulation–most notably the winner-takes-all first-past-the-post electoral system, which transformed narrow pluralities into overwhelming majorities. This often marginalizes opposition votes, depriving them of representation despite significant backing, both in Addis Abeba and beyond. Additionally, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), despite claims of modernization, remained under the firm control of the ruling party, disqualifying opposition parties and candidates on dubious procedural grounds.

Between autocracy and anarchy

As Ethiopia prepares for the 2026 elections, a complex web of ongoing crises poses significant challenges to the electoral process. Various conflicts across the country create obstacles to holding fair and credible elections. In Amhara, the Fano insurgency, sparked by federal attempts to disarm regional militias, has resulted in mass arrests and drone strikes, exacerbating instability. Meanwhile, in Oromia, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) continues to employ guerrilla tactics, while federal forces face allegations of extrajudicial killings, heightening tensions. Despite the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, Tigray remains isolated from the rest of the country, with no local elections in sight and persistent violence, making it increasingly difficult for residents to envision a chance to vote. Historically, the government has used these conflicts as a pretext to postpone elections or suppress dissent, and it is likely it will resort to similar tactics in 2026 if violence escalates further.

As Ethiopia prepares for the 2026 elections, a complex web of ongoing crises poses significant challenges to the electoral process.”

The electoral landscape in Ethiopia is plagued by violence and intimidation. Opposition campaigns in regions like Oromia, Amhara, and Somali face severe restrictions, often justified in the name of security. The ongoing conflict in Tigray has led to the displacement of millions, making it difficult for many to participate in the voting process and raising serious doubts about the credibility of the elections. Media freedom has suffered a significant blow, with independent outlets being threatened, harassed, or shut down, while state-controlled media propagates government narratives. Journalists who dare to report on conflicts or opposition activities live in constant fear of arrest under anti-terror and cyber security laws.

These tactics have historically transformed Ethiopia’s elections, especially in 2021, into mere showcases of authoritarian control rather than genuine democratic participation. Without significant changes, similar manipulations and abuses are likely to recur in 2026, further diminishing any remaining prospects for democratic revitalization and accountability.

Ethiopia’s electoral institutions are currently facing serious challenges. The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), which is supposed to operate independently, is increasingly succumbing to political pressure. Recent appointments have raised concerns about the removal of impartial officials in favor of regime supporters, raising worries about potential bias and manipulation. The Joint Council of Political Parties, designed to promote dialogue and fairness, is predominantly made up of government allies, reducing the likelihood of fair elections. Without reliable oversight, the risk of electoral fraud and manipulation becomes almost inevitable.

Moreover, structural and legal obstacles within Ethiopia’s electoral system present significant challenges. The winner-takes-all first-past-the-post system heavily favors the ruling party, enabling it to secure a supermajority even with just a plurality of votes. While transitioning to a proportional representation system could address this imbalance, the government is resistant to such changes. The widespread use of anti-terror and cyber security laws to detain opposition figures, journalists, and critics stifles political diversity and dissent, further constricting the space for genuine democratic participation.

The opposition in Ethiopia is facing severe marginalization, with many political parties being silenced or forced underground. For example, the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) and OLF boycotted the 2021 elections due to the arrest of several leaders, and their calls for the release of political prisoners have largely been ignored. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has been designated a terrorist organization and completely excluded from the political arena. Recently, the National Election Board (NEBE) revoked TPLF’s legal status, alleging their failure to take “corrective measures” after a three-month deadline that expired on 05 May, 2025. This miscalculation has already heightened tensions between the federal government and the TPLF and could potentially ignite renewed conflict unless cooler heads prevail.

In the Somali region, the opposition group the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) is facing increasing harassment amid concerns of renewed conflict. Despite a peace agreement reached in 2018 with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, there is still distrust due to poor implementation. Regional leaders aligned with Addis Abeba are attempting to divide ONLF by creating pro-government factions and trying to replace its leader, Abdirahman Maaday, with Abdikarim Sheikh Muse–a provocative move that could spark further insurgent activities.

Since 2020, more than 54 journalists have fled the country, and many opposition leaders are either in exile or imprisoned. Without an independent press or credible opposition voices, Ethiopia risks turning its elections into a mere “one-party coronation”–an empty event lacking legitimacy and public trust.

Ethiopia’s federal system, originally intended to empower its diverse ethnic groups, has paradoxically become a source of instability. Despite the constitution’s promise of regional autonomy, federal authorities frequently intervene by dismantling regional militias, replacing local governments, and suppressing protests. In 2020, a constitutional crisis erupted in Ethiopia when the federal government postponed elections. This resulted in the Tigray region holding its own vote, which was contested by the federal government. The absence of an independent court to settle the disagreement heightened tensions, eventually leading to armed conflict.

The 2026 Ethiopian election is not just about politics; it is a critical test for the country’s democratic future.”

Oromo and Amhara protests often face harsh crackdowns, including the use of deadly force and mass arrests. Tensions are escalating in the Somali region following the emergence of a splinter ONLF group and the removal of its leader. The ongoing efforts to centralize power and undermine Ethiopia’s federalist model are likely to exacerbate ethnic tensions and further destabilize the nation, making it increasingly improbable for credible elections to take place unless genuine respect for regional autonomy is upheld.

Ballot or bullet?

Ethiopia is at a critical juncture and must implement significant reforms by 2026 to pave the way for a more promising future. These reforms should include revamping the electoral system to adopt proportional representation, inviting international observers for accountability, and ensuring independent functioning of electoral bodies free from political interference. Prioritizing conflict resolution through dialogues with armed groups like Fano and OLA and honoring agreements with Tigray and ONLF, such as the Pretoria deal and the 2018 peace agreement, are crucial. Releasing political prisoners, including journalists and opposition leaders, and restoring press freedoms are essential for promoting a more inclusive and democratic society.